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QE JOURNAL
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Articles 12 Documents
INFLATION PERSISTENCE IN NORTH SUMATERA PROVINCE Julitawaty, Wily
QE JOURNAL Vol 3, No 01 (2014): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2014
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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AbstractThe purpose of this study was to determine the persistence of inflation in major North Sumatera Province in 2007 until 2012 and value contributed Output Growth (GDP) of North Sumatera, Exchange Rate, Interest Rate and Error Correction Term about Inflation in North Sumatera. Data is used secondary data from general Consumer Price Index (CPI) from North Sumatera Province include Medan, Pematangsiantar, Sibolga and Padangsidempuan monthly of January 2007 until December 2012. And secondary data Consumer Price Index (CPI) of North Sumatera Province, Gross Domestic Product of Province Sumatera Utara, Exchange Rate and Interest Rate of BI Rate yearly of 1999 until 2012. Model is used model econometric with Autoregressive method and Error Correction Model. Result of this research with estimation of VAR model concludes that degree of persistence of 4 town from North Sumatera Province is low. Result of estimation of model ECM concludes that Interest Rate significantly affect to inflation rate, while Gross Domestic Product of North Sumatera Province and Exchange Rate not significantly affect to inflation rate. While ECT becomes significant correction to variable inflation rate. Where the form of error correction in the ECM suggests a long‐term relationship between the variables inflation, GDP variable, the variable exchange rate and variable interest rate is comparable.Keywords: Inflation Persistence, Inflation, IHK, Error Correction Model(ECM)
KETERKAITAN INSTRUMEN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DENGAN NERACA PEMBAYARAN DI INDONESIA maipita, indra
QE JOURNAL Vol 3, No 01 (2014): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2014
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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AbstractThis study aims to determine the monetary policy variable linkages withIndonesias balance of payments. Using svar and IRF analysis found that the level of α = 0.05, variable monetary policy instruments such as open market operation(OPT), the minimum reserve requirement (GWM), and the discount rate (rDisk) has a significant relationship with the variable balance of payments (BOP) . In fact,all the macroeconomic variables also significantly affect the balance of paymentsvariables, except the variable domestic interest rates. This means that there is aclose link between monetary policy instruments with the balance of payments inIndonesia in the period of the study.Keywords: Instruments of Monetary policy, Balance of payment, SVAR, IRF
ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PENYERAPAN TENAGA KERJA SEKTOR INDUSTRI DI SUMATERA UTARA Sitompul, Dian Novianti
QE JOURNAL Vol 3, No 01 (2014): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2014
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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AbstrackNorth Sumatra is a province that has a fundamental problem of high unemployment. Judging from the years 1994-2010, overall pengengguran is the biggest challenge still facing the North Sumatra due to termination of employment due to the economic crisis, rising raw material prices significantly from the various sub-industries are incorporated in the manufacturing category. On the other hand the costs for labor and increase the added value of the resulting output is a condition that must be considered. This research aims to analyze the influence of GDP, the number of industries, inflation and the minimum wage on employment in the industrial sector of North Sumatra simultaneously and partially.The data used are secondary data sourced from North Sumatra Province namely BPS GDP variable, the number of industries, inflation, wages and employment industries in the province of North Sumatra as time series from 1994 till , 2010. The results of this research can be concluded that simultaneous simultaneously change the variable GDP, inflation, industrial, and UMR significantly affect the demand for industrial labor in the province of North Sumatra. Furthermore, partially concluded that GDP variable, and the number of positive effect on demand for industrial labor industry, while inflation and minimum wage variables negatively affect the demand for industrial labor in the province of North Sumatra.The results also showed that the most dominant variable effect on the demand for labor in the industrial sector of the province of North Sumatra is the number of industries.Keywords : Industry Sector Employment, GDP, inflation, industrial, and UMR
ANALISIS HUBUNGAN ANTARA INFLASI DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: KASUS INDONESIA Lubis, Ismail Fahmi
QE JOURNAL Vol 3, No 01 (2014): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2014
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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AbstractThe Phenomena and trends of level of inflation which seem to be high as caused by factors or government policies whilst the level of economic growth averagely shows high and sustainable growth drawing the unusual macroeconomic condition in Indonesia. This research is conducted to find Correlation and Short-run as well as Long-run relationship between inflation and economic in Indonesia during 1968-2012. Besides, it is to find Granger-Causality between the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It first tests its Unit-Root by Augmented Dickey Fuller and Dickey Fuller test, then it tests its Cointegration by Johansen Cointegration test and its causal relationship by Granger-Causality test as well as it makes mechanism of Error Correction Model (ECM). It is found both inflation and economic growth have no Unit-Root. It is found both inflation and economic growth have Correlation. It is found significantly long-run relationship through the probability value of its residual and short-run relationship through the probability value of inflation and economic growth in its differentiation. It is then found significantly one-way Granger-causality GDP causes CPI but not found one-way Granger-causality CPI causes GDP.Keywords : Inflation, Economic Growth
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI PERMINTAAN KEDELAI DI PROVINSI SUMATERA UTARA Rahmanta, Rahmanta
QE JOURNAL Vol 4, No 01 (2015): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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AbstractA soybean is a food crops and vegetable proteins source important for people in North Sumatera Province. A soybean demands increased from year to year in North Sumatera Province. It caused by several factors such as a population growth, per capita income, and change in food consumption patterns with economic growth in North Sumatera Province. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze a factors that influence of soybean demand in North Sumatera Province. The data used a secondary data sourced in the form of time series from 1990 – 2013. The analysis model is a double linear regression. The result showed that the soybean price influences negative and not significant to the soybean demand, the corn price influences positive and not significant to soybean demand, while the total population and per capita income influences positive and not significant to soybean demand in North Sumatera Province.Keywords : soybean demand, soybean price, corn price, total population and percapita income
PEMBENTUKAN MODEL ARIMA UNTUK PERAMALAN INFLASI KELOMPOK BAHAN MAKANAN DI KOTA TERNATE Teapon, Rizal Rahman
QE JOURNAL Vol 4, No 01 (2015): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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AbstractARIMA modeling and forecasting inflation foodstuffs in Ternate city is the purpose of this study. The method used in this research is ARIMA (Auto Regressive Moving avarage). The results showed that ARIMA (6,1,6) is the best model because it has been qualified in the test parameter estimation, diagnostic test/evaluation models and instrument evaluation test for fault models.Keywords : Inflation foodstuffs, ARIMA (Auto Regressive Moving avarage),ARIMA (6,1,6)
STRATEGI HEDGING PADA PENGELOLAAN HUTANG LUAR- NEGERI PEMERINTAH INDONESIA TERHADAP RESIKO FLUKTUASI NILAI TUKAR US DOLLAR Miksalmina, Miksalmina
QE JOURNAL Vol 4, No 01 (2015): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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AbstractDuring this time, the position of External Debt (ED) government has always had the exposure risk from a fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates to USDollar. Usually, the ED values to swell because of the risk of weakening of the Rupiah against the USDollar. This study aims to look at the effectiveness of hedging strategies on the management of the governments foreign debt of Indonesia to the risk of exchange rate fluctuations of US dollar, by making a simulation of hedging forward contracts. A hedging strategy with a new forward contract will be executed if the rate exceeds Rp 10,000 per USDollar as psychological level. In this simulation, the Government applied a hedging strategy by purchasing forward contracts. This purchasing strategy will generate profits only when the values of forward contracts of USD / IDR weakened at the maturity date later. But if the opposite happens, then potential losses will occur. To minimize the potential loss, wee need this necessary analysis of historical and technical movement of the rupiah against the USDollar, followed by mechanisms of active trading. Active trading allows the government took the position prior purchases or sales in forward contracts advance, depending on the signal and market trends that occurred at that time. By hedging forward contracts, the resulting changes in the value of external debt on the simulation type 2 is much lower. In other words, it shows that the real strengthening of the rupiah with hedging strategies can ease the burden of official external debt, so it can be quite effective to reduce the external debt burden of the government when the time payment or maturity date is come.Keywords : Hedging, External Debt, Currency Exchange Rate, Forward ContractHedging
ANALISIS INTERDEPENDENSI PENDAPATAN PEMERINTAH DENGAN PENGELUARAN PEMERINTAH Naibaho, Marlon; Ramadhani, Mhd Fitri; Nugrahadi, Eko Wahyu
QE JOURNAL Vol 4, No 01 (2015): QE Journal Edisi Maret 2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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ABSTRACTThis research examines the interdependence analysis of government income to government expenditure in Indonesia, in which problems arise in this study is that government expenditure is always greater than the government income, although government income in a given year is greater than government expenditure.This research aims to look at the pattern or direction of causality between government income to government expenditure.Variables to be tested are government income and government expenditure.The data that are used are time series data 1988-2011 period.Sources of data obtained from the Central Statistics Agency of North Sumatra Province.The method used is the Granger Causality. Results of the research showed that between government income to government spending have a unidirectional causality, the causality runs from government expenditure to government income, then there is a relationship between the two variables and both have long-term rapid adjustment towards the long-term.Keywords : Government Income, Government Expenditures
THE IMPACT OF FREE TRADE BETWEEN ASEAN AND CHINA ON THE INDONESIAN HOUSEHOLDS maipita, indra
QE JOURNAL Vol 3, No 02 (2014): QE Journal Edisi Juni 2014
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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Free trade agreement between ASEAN and China was executed in early2010. Various types of trade tariffs have been removed or lowered to support the agreement which may lead to changes in the welfare of Indonesian households. This research tries to find out the impact of ASEAN-China free trade agreement on the welfare of households in Indonesia. The model used for this analysis is AGEFIS model, a Computable General Equilibrium model of Indonesian economy. The findings of this research show that the free trade between ASEAN and China increases the level of economic activity. Various macroeconomic indicators such as output and exports increase relative to the output prior to the free trade agreement. Income of urban households rise but rural households are adversely affected. Skilled-workers benefits more than unskilled ones.Keywords : ASEAN-CHINA Free Trade Area, AGEFIS, Shock, SAM
SISTEM PERINGATAN DINI KETAHANAN PANGAN DAERAH: PENATALAKSANAAN DAN PELIBATAN SELURUH PEMANGKU KEPENTINGAN Hakim, Lukman; Trinugraha, Yosafat Hermawan; Mulyanto, Mulyanto; JNS, Hery Sulistyo; Nugraha, Bambang; Suryono, Suryono
QE JOURNAL Vol 3, No 02 (2014): QE Journal Edisi Juni 2014
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi Unimed

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Early Warning System (EWS) is a solution of food security of the most importantin the management of the policy (Governance) food security. This study departs from best practices (best practices) in the regional autonomy that has been applied in the area surrounding the Surakarta and management of food security that is initiated by Bank Indonesia (BI) and the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) through Regional Inflation Control Team (TPID). This study uses FGD and AHP method are used to build the index of food security EWS. The results of this study indicatethat areas that do not have high production in food commodities indeed have ahigher susceptibility than having high production.Keywords : Food security, Inflation

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