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Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan
First published in 2007, Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan (BILP) is a scientific journal published by the Trade Analysis dan Development Agency (Badan Pengkajian dan Pengembangan Perdagangan - BPPP), Ministry of Trade, Republic of Indonesia. This bulletin is expected to be a media of dissemination and analysis of research results to be used as references for academics, practitioners, policy-makers, and the general public. In collaboration with professional associations, The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics (Perhimpunan Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia - PERHEPI), BILP publishes research reports and analysis of trade sector and/or sector-related trade which have not been published in any other journals/scholarly publications, either in Bahasa Indonesia or English. Publishing twice a year in July and December, this Bulletin is directly disseminated to stakeholders both in print and online.
Articles
149
Articles
THE IMPACT OF ZERO IMPORT TARIFF POLICY AND AIR POLLUTION PREVENTION AND CONTROL ACTION PLAN ON INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT TO CHINA

Rahmawan, Nanda Bagus ( Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik ) , Oktora, Siskarossa Ika ( Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Indonesia dan Tiongkok merupakan pelaku utama perdagangan batu bara dunia. Indonesia adalah eksportir batu bara terbesar dan pemasok utama kebutuhan batu bara Tiongkok, sedangkan Tiongkok adalah importir batu bara terbesar di dunia. Kebijakan tarif impor nol persen pada komoditas batu bara yang diterapkan Tiongkok pada Januari 2008, berdampak pada meningkatnya ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok. Namun, setelah Tiongkok mengeluarkan kebijakan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok mulai menurun pada tahun 2014. Tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah untuk mempelajari pengaruh kebijakan tarif impor nol persen dan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok. Metode yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis intervensi multi input. Data yang digunakan berasal dari Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). Hasil dari penelitian menunjukkan bahwa kebijakan tarif impor nol persen yang diterapkan oleh Tiongkok memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan positif dan permanen terhadap ekspor batu bara Indonesia ke Tiongkok. Sementara itu, kebijakan Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan negatif dan permanen. Rekomendasi kebijakan adalah implementasi kebijakan tentang standar minimum kualitas batu bara yang dihasilkan. Dengan demikian, kualitas ekspor batu bara Indonesia dapat menyesuaikan spesifikasi permintaan pasar dari negara pengimpor yang menerapkan kebijakan pengendalian pencemaran udara. Indonesia and China are the main actors of world coal trading. Indonesia is the largest coal exporter and the main supplier of Chinese coal needs, while China is the worlds largest coal importer. The zero import tariff policy on coal commodities applied by China in January 2008, has an impact on increasing Indonesian coal exports to China. However, after China issued its policy of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan, Indonesian coal exports to China began to decline in 2014. The objective of this research is to study the influence of zero import tariff policy and Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan to the Indonesian coal exports to China. The method used in this research is the multi-input intervention analysis. Data used are developed from BPS. The results show that the zero import tariff policy applied by China has significantly positive and permanent effect on Indonesian coal exports to China. Meanwhile, the policy of Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan has significantly negative and permanent effect. Policy recommendation is the implementation of policy about minimum standards of coal quality that may be produced. Thus, Indonesian coal exports quality will able to adjust market demand specification from importing countries that implement policies about pollution control.

MAIZE SUPPLY RESPONSE IN INDONESIA

Magfiroh, Illia Seldon ( Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Jember ) , Zainuddin, Ahmad ( Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Jember ) , Setyawati, Intan Kartika ( Agribusiness Study Program, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Jember )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Permintaan terhadap komoditas jagung di Indonesia terus meningkat karena produksi jagung tidak memadai untuk mencukupi konsumsi jagung yang terus meningkat. Dampak dari kondisi ini adalah terjadinya kelangkaan komoditas jagung dan meningkatnya harga jagung. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis respon penawaran petani jagung terhadap perubahan harga input dan output. Dalam penelitian ini, juga dilakukan upaya untuk menguji respon penawaran petani jagung di Indonesia dengan menggunakan metode Error Correction Model (ECM). Penelitian ini menggunakan data sekunder. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa penawaran petani terhadap jagung dipengaruhi oleh harga kedelai, upah tenaga kerja, harga benih, harga pupuk urea, harga pakan, dan harga jagung impor. Petani jagung juga responsif terhadap harga jagung, oleh karena itu, kebijakan stabilitas harga dan kebijakan harga dasar dapat diberlakukan kembali untuk mendukung swasembada jagung. Penelitian ini juga merekomendasikan bahwa masih perlu kebijakan subsidi input dan perluasan lahan untuk meningkatkan penawaran jagung. Demand for maize in Indonesia keeps growing due to low maize production, while consumption keep increasing (excess demand). The situation creates scarcity in maize and leads to the commodity’s high price. This study aims to analyze the supply response of maize farmers on the changes of input and output prices. This study also examines the supply response of maize farmers in Indonesia by using Error Correction Model (ECM). The study uses secondary data. Results of the study shows  that supply of maize farmers is influenced by price of soybeans, wages of labor, prices of seed, of urea fertilizer, of feed, and of imported maize. Maize farmers are also responsive to changes in maize prices and therefore the policy of maize floor price can be re-applied to support the national food self-sufficiency. In addition the input subsidy and land expansion policies are still necessary to increase maize supply.

TRADE COMPLEMENTARITY DAN EXPORT SIMILARITY SERTA PENGARUHNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR INDONESIA KE NEGARA-NEGARA ANGGOTA OKI

Retnosari, Lili ( Statistics of Pulang Pisau Regency ) , ., Nasrudin ( Institute of Statistic )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Pada tahun 2014, total ekspor Indonesia ke negara anggota OKI sekitar 14% dari total ekspor Indonesia sejak bergabung dengan OKI 1969. Kajian ini bertujuan untuk meneliti apakah produk ekspor Indonesia sesuai dengan produk impor yang diminta oleh negara OKI. Metode analisis yang digunakan adalah trade complementarity dan export similarity index. Kedua indeks tersebut kemudian diuji pengaruhnya terhadap ekspor Indonesia dengan menggunakan model regresi panel untuk mengidentifikasi pasar ekspor potensial. Hasil kajian menunjukkan bahwa negara anggota OKI adalah pasar ekspor yang potensial karena kesesuaian produk yang diimpor. Hal ini didukung oleh nilai trade complementarity indek yang tinggi dan cenderung meningkat serta nilai export similarity indek yang cenderung menurun selama periode 2000-2014. Hal itu diperkuat dengan hasil regresi panel yang menunjukkan bahwa kedua indeks memberikan dampak positif dan signifikan terhadap ekspor Indonesia. Negara negara anggota OKI yang merupakan pasar ekspor potensial adalah Turki, Mesir, Yordania, Djibouti, Uni Emirat Arab, Bangladesh, Pakistan, dan Nigeria. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Pemerintah untuk lebih meningkatkan ekspor ke negara-negara potensial melalui promosi dan pameran dagang secara lebih intensif. In 2014, total Indonesian export to the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) member countries reached 14% of its total exports since the country joined the OIC in 1969. This study examines whether Indonesia’s export products complement with the OIC member countries’s import products. This study uses trade complementarity and export similarity index. Furthermore, those indexes tested the impact on Indonesia’s export to the OIC member countries by using panel regression to identify the potential market. The results show that the OIC member countries are the potential export market because their import products match with the Indonesia’s export products. It is indicated by high trade complementarity index that tends to rise and export similarity index which tends to decrease from 2000-2014. This is reinforced by panel regression results that conclude that both indexes give a significant positive effect to boost Indonesia’s export. The OIC member countries that are potential export markets according to the model are Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, Djibouti, United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, Pakistan, and Nigeria. Therefore, the government needs to increase export to potential countries through more intensive trade promotion and exhibition.

POLICY OPTIONS TO LOWER RICE PRICES IN INDONESIA

Respatiadi, Hizkia ( Center for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS) ) , Nabila, Hana ( Center for Indonesian Policy Studies (CIPS) )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Di Indonesia, harga beras membuat 28 juta masyarakat pra-sejahtera menghabiskan nyaris separuh penghasilannya. Menanggapi hal ini, pemerintah menerapkan Harga Eceran Tertinggi (HET) dan menugaskan Badan Urusan Logistik (Bulog) untuk menstabilkan harga beras. Sebagai salah satu perwujudan tugasnya, Bulog ditunjuk menjadi importir tunggal beras. Kajian ini menganalisis efektiitas HET, kinerja Bulog sebagai importir beras, dan korelasi antara harga beras di Indonesia dan pasar internasional. Makalah ini mengusulkan opsi kebijakan untuk menurunkan harga beras dengan menggarisbawahi potensi perdagangan internasional. Makalah ini menggunakan Error Correction Model (ECM) dan hasil wawancara. Hasilnya: (1) HET menekan para pedagang eceran, sementara para tengkulak, pemilik penggilingan, dan pedagang grosir yang mengambil laba terbesar dari sistem distribusi beras dalam negeri; (2) Akibat kendala birokrasi, Bulog kerap mengimpor beras ketika harga internasional sudah telanjur meningkat; (3) Harga beras di Indonesia terdeviasi dan lebih mahal dibandingkan pasar internasional. Makalah ini merekomendasikan agar pemerintah mengkaji HET, memberikan kebebasan kepada Bulog untuk menentukan waktu maupun kuantitas beras yang perlu diimpornya dengan berdasarkan pada analisis pasar, dan membentuk forum konsultasi dengan sektor swasta yang memenuhi syarat. Hal ini akan menjaga harga beras senantiasa kompetitif baik bagi konsumen maupun pedagang eceran, serta akan membawa Indonesia lebih dekat dengan rantai nilai regional. In Indonesia, rice prices cost around 28 million poor nearly half of their income. In response, the government implements price ceiling (HET) and assigns National Logistics Agency (Bulog) to stabilize rice prices. As part of its duties, Bulog was appointed as the sole rice importer. This study analyzed the effectiveness of HET, Bulog’s performance as rice importer, and the correlation between rice prices in Indonesia and in international market. This paper explores policy options to lower rice prices by highlighting the potential of international trade. This study used Error Correction Models (ECM) and semi-structured interviews. The results: (1) HET pressures retailers, while middlemen, rice millers, and wholesalers benefit the most from domestic rice distribution; (2) Due to bureaucratic constraints, Bulog frequently imported rice when international prices were already rising; (3) Rice prices in Indonesia deviate away from and higher than the international market. This paper recommends the government to review HET, to give freedom to Bulog to determine the timing and quantity of rice importation based on its market analysis, and to organize consultative forums with qualified private sector. This will keep the prices competitive for both consumers and retailers and bring Indonesia closer to the regional value chain.

DAMPAK NON TARIFF MEASURES (NTMs) TERHADAP EKSPOR UDANG INDONESIA

Ardiyanti, Septika Tri ( Ministry of Trade ) , Saputri, Ayu Sinta ( Ministry of Trade )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Kajian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak kebijakan non tarif terhadap ekspor udang dan olahannya dari Indonesia. Untuk mengetahui dampak NTM terhadap ekspor, studi ini menggunakan gravity model dengan panel data. Variabel yang digunakan antara lain volume ekspor udang dan olahannya, PDB negara tujuan ekspor, nilai tukar riil, jarak ekonomi, tarif bea masuk dan variabel NTM berupa SPS dan TBT. Kajian ini menunjukkan bahwa NTM memiliki pengaruh negatif terhadap ekspor udang dan olahan udang nasional. Pengenaan TBT di negara tujuan ekspor memiliki dampak negatif yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan SPS. Volume ekspor udang dan olahan ke negara mitra yang menerapkan TBT 30,2% lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan negara yang tidak menerapkan TBT, sementara ekspor ke negara dengan SPS 21,3% lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan negara yang tidak menerapkan SPS. Hal tersebut menunjukkan bahwa Indonesia belum mampu untuk memenuhi standar dan persyaratan impor yang diterapkan di negara tujuan ekspor. Dengan demikian, pemerintah diharapkan dapat memberikan bantuan bagi para eksportir udang dengan memberikan bantuan informasi pasar serta regulasi yang berlaku di negara tujuan ekspor. Selain itu, pemerintah juga perlu untuk memberikan dukungan sehingga eksportir dapat memenuhi standar dan persyaratan yang berlaku di negara tujuan ekspor. This study aims to analyze the impact of non-tariff policy on shrimp and processed shrimp in Indonesia. To analyze the impact of NTM on Indonesias shrimp export, this study uses gravity model with panel data. Variables used are export volume of Indonesia’s shrimp and processed shrimp, GDP of export destination countries, real exchange rate, economic distance, import duty and NTM variables (SPS and TBT). This study shows that NTM has  negative impact on shrimp exports. The imposition of TBT in export destination countries has a greater negative impact  on shrimp export c than SPS. The shrimp export volume to the partner countries appliying TBT is 30,2% lower than countries that not applying TBT, while exports to cpuntries imposing SPs is 21,3% lower than countries without SPS. This fact indicates that Indonesia’s exporters has not been able to meet standards and requirements applied by export destination countries. Therefore, the government is expected to provide assistance to the exporters by providing market information, regulation and requirements in export destination country. In addition, the government also needs to provide support so that exporters could meet the standards and requirements applied by export destination countries.

DAMPAK DEVALUASI YUAN TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA PENDEKATAN MODEL PERSAMAAN SIMULTAN

Ramana, Febria ( Badan Pusat Statistik ) , Nasrudin, Nasrudin ( Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Statistik Jakarta )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 12, No 1 (2018)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis dampak devaluasi yuan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan skenario simulasi model persamaan simultan dengan metode estimasi Two Stage Least Square (2SLS). Hasil dari analisis ini menunjukkan bahwa devaluasi yuan berdampak signifikan terhadap perekonomian Indonesia melalui jalur perdagangan dan investasi. Pada blok perdagangan, devaluasi yuan menyebabkan ekspor Indonesia ke negara lain mengalami penurunan, terutama ekspor ke China karena devaluasi yuan lebih besar dibandingkan rupiah. Hal ini membuat produk China relatif lebih murah dibandingkan Indonesia. Pada blok investasi, total investasi meningkat karena investor beralih dari China ke Indonesia yang didorong tingkat pengembalian modal di China menurun. Sementara itu, pada blok moneter, nilai rupiah dan PDB Indonesia menurun akibat penurunan net ekspor lebih besar dibandingkan peningkatan FDI. Devaluasi rupiah pun memicu imported inflation. Secara keseluruhan, devaluasi yuan berdampak negatif bagi perekonomian Indonesia. Oleh karena itu, penting bagi Indonesia untuk mengurangi ketergantungan terhadap China, terutama dalam perdagangan. Hal ini dapat dilakukan dengan diversifikasi pasar dan peningkatan kualitas produk ekspor. This paper examines and provides an analysis regarding the impact of an economic shock, yuan devaluation, on the Indonesian economy. We analyze a simulation scenario by using simultaneous equation model with two-stage least square (2SLS) method. Empirical findings exhibit that shock has the significant impact on Indonesian economy through both of trade and investment transmissions. In trade block, Indonesian export to China has the most decreasing rather than others countries because of yuan more decrease than rupiah. In investment block, a total of investment gets the impact to rise, particularly in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) from China, caused by decreasing wealth of foreign investors in China.   Meanwhile, in the monetary block, the value of rupiah and Indonesian GDP simultaneously get the impact to decline, whereas yuan devalution leads Indonesian inflation to rise. Therefore, it is essential for the government to decrease Indonesian dependence on China, particularly in trade block. Some options which government should implement are market diversification and increasing export products quality.

PROSPEK KERJASAMA PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA – INDIA

Rahmawati, Irma

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1, No 3 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

This Research was conducated to see the progress of Trade relationship between Indonesia and India , to see global picture of benefit to do a free trade agreements (FTA) with India, to see future prospect of Indonesian Main export Comodities to India. India was Indonesian good Trade partner, and it was shown by the increase of total Trade and also Trade balance in each year. Simulation by WITS-Smart Programme show that realization of FTA between Indonesia and India will benefit for both countries. Simulation of India’s tariff cut show there are an increase on welfare in India and export in Indonesia. Most of main export Comodities have good prospect to increase with FTA realization. Prospect Indicators are seen by copper growth from the wortlh, and the value of Trade total effect that is created by the realization of FTA.

KEMUNGKINAN KELEMBAGAAN RIA DALAM RANGKA REFORMASI REGULASI

Ningsih, Rahayu ( Kementerian Perdagangan ) , Kusyatiningsih, Sri ( Kementerian Perdagangan )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Pemulihan ekonomi Indonesia pasca krisis tahun 1997 sangat lambat jika dibandingkan dengan negara lain yang juga terkena krisis, dan factor penyebabnya adalah kualitas regulasi yang rendah dan tidak berorientasi pasar sehingga menghambat dinamika perekonomian. Sehubungan dengan hal tersebut, maka dibuatlah suatu rancangan Kelembagaan yang menangani review regulasi baik yang sudah diterapkan maupun yang akan dibuat dengan metode RIA (Regulatory Impact Assessment), dimana Lembaga tersebut berfungsi untuk melakukan review terhadap seluruh regulasi yang diterbitkan oleh instansi pemerintah, terutama regulasi yang menghambat perkembangan kemajuan dunia usaha.Salah satu proses yang digunakan di banyak negara maju untuk mereview regulasi adalah melalui Regulatory Impact Assessment (RIA). Di Indonesia, prakarsa penggunaan metode RIA dimulai sejak tahun 2001 baik ditingkat pusat maupun daerah. Beberapa tahun lalu pemerintah telah mengeluarkan 3 (tiga) paket kebijakan untuk memperbaiki perekonomian, yaitu paket kebijakan pembangunan infrastruktur, kebijakan perbaikan iklim investasi dan kebijakan sektor keuangan. Namun semuanya belum memberikan kemajuan signifikan dalam reformasi peraturan dan birokrasi karena selama ini kurang berdaya untuk memberikan sinyal positif bagi pemulihan perekonomian. Departemen Perdagangan mulai tahun 2004 sampai sekarang telah mengambil inisiatif untuk melakukan kajian RIA sebagai metode dalam melakukan reformasi peraturan yang berkaitan dengan perdagangan dan iklim usaha, serta melakukan Sosialisasi RIA ke berbagai daerah di Indonesia. Keberhasilan penggunaan metode RIA sangat ditentukan oleh adanya komitmen yang kuat dari pimpinan di samping adanya kelembagaan RIA.

PENURUNAN PAJAK EKSPOR DAN DAMPAKNYA TERHADAP EKSPOR MINYAK KELAPA SAWIT INDONESIA KE CINA (PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL)

Munadi, Ernawati

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1, No 3 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

The palm oil Industry is an important sector in the Indonesian economiy as it is one of the country’s major export earners as well as food source for her population.Indonesia is the world second largest producer of palm oil after Malaysia, accounting for about 34% OF The  world production in the year 2006. Indonesia  is also the largest consumer of palm oil in the developing economies, in 2006. Indonesia consumed a total of 5.5 mn tonnes of palm oil. Of this amount 76.75% is comprised of  frying oil. About 55% of the production is exported in the form of crude palm oil mainly to Asian countries primarily to India and China and  Eruropean countries. Debate on Indonesia’s palm oil policy was stimulated by the sharp increase in cooking oil prices in 1994-1995 which resulted in the introduction of export tax rate on palm oil in order to maintain a certain level of domestic consumption.Using annual data for the period 1969-2006, an econometric  approach  mainly the error correction model. Was employed  in this study This paper examines the impacts of reduction in export duty onthe import demand of Indonesian palm oil to China. The findings indicate  that the  quantity of palm oil exported to China is significantly influenced by changes in the soybean oil price, world palm oil price, Industrial Production Index (IPI) exchange rate  and lagged of export demand of Indonesian palm oil to China by one year with the elasticity of 1,49, 1.47,0.24, 0.59, and 0.79, respectively. The coefficients for long run variables presented by the ECM are jointly not equal to zero.This result suggests that as a group, the long run variable (ECM) have influenced the changes in the export demand to China which is indicated by the significance of the coefficient. The simulation results suggest that the direct impact of reduction of export duty would increase the quantity exported to China. The Indonesia export to China from 95.36 thousand tones to 118,23 thousand tones.

ANALYSING FACTORS DETERMINING SUGAR RETAIL PRICE

Rahayuningrum, Ninuk ( Kementerian Perdagangan ) , Susila, Wayan, Widayanti, Tjahya ( Kementerian Perdagangan )

Buletin Ilmiah Litbang Perdagangan Vol 1, No 2 (2007)
Publisher : Trade Analysis and Development Agency, Ministry of Trade of Republic of Indonesia

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Abstract

Since 2002, the government of Indonesia (GOI) has imposed promoting and protective to the Indonesia sugar industry. The policies have caused a significant increase in domestic production and farmer welfare. However, the policies also caused the government cannot effectively control the domestic retail price, especially when sugar price in the international market is very high. With this problem, this study is aimed at analyzing factors that significantly determine retail sugar price that can be used as policy instrument to control the price. An econometric model was used to determining the factors and their effect on the retail price. The result of analysis show that farm gate proce reference determined by the GOI, distribution costs, sugar import price, and market competition level are four main factor determining the retail price, explaining around 84% of retail price behavior. The elasticity of the sugar retail price toward the change of the four factors lies between 0.026-0.566. These imply that the GOI can use these four factors and their related variables as policy instrument to control the price.