TELKOMNIKA Telecommunication, Computing, Electronics and Control
Vol 17, No 2: April 2019

The step construction of penalized spline in electrical power load data

Caraka, Rezzy Eko ( University of Malaysia )
Bakar, Sakhinah Abu ( University of Malaysia )
Anuraga, Gangga ( PGRI Adi Buana Surabaya University )
Mauludin, M. A. ( Padjadjaran University )
Anwardi, Anwardi ( UIN Sultan Syarif Kasim Riau )
Pomalingo, Suwito ( Universitas Muslim Indonesia )
Rosalina, Vidila ( Serang University )



Article Info

Publish Date
01 Apr 2019

Abstract

Electricity is one of the most pressing needs for human life. Electricity is required not only for lighting but also to carry out activities of daily life related to activities Social and economic community. The problems is currently a limited supply of electricity resulting in an energy crisis. Electrical power is not storable therefore it is a vital need to make a good electricity demand forecast. According to this, we conducted an analysis based on power load. Given a baseline to this research, we applied penalized splines (P-splines) which led to a powerful and applicable smoothing technique. In this paper, we revealed penalized spline degree 1 (linear) with 8 knots is the best model since it has the lowest GCV (Generelized Cross Validation). This model have become a compelling model to predict electric power load evidenced by of Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE=0.013) less than 10%.

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