Forum Geografi
Vol 29, No 1 (2015): July 2015

Application of Vector Auto Regression Model for Rainfall-River Discharge Analysis


Hartini, Sri, Hadi, Muhammad Pramono, Sudibyakto, S, Poniman, Aris



Article Info

Publish Date
06 Aug 2015

Abstract

River discharge quantity is highly depended on rainfall and initial condition of river discharge; hence, the river discharge has auto-correlation relationships. This study used Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model for analysing the relationship between rainfall and river discharge variables. VAR model was selected by considering the nature of the relationship between rainfall and river discharge as well as the types of rainfall and discharge data, which are in form of time series data. This research was conducted by using daily rainfall and river discharge data obtained from three weirs, namely Sojomerto and Juwero, in Kendal Regency and Glapan in Demak Regency, Central Java Province. Result of the causality tests shows significant relationship of both variables, those on the influence of rainfall to river discharge as well as the influence of river discharge to rainfall variables. The significance relationships of river discharge to rainfall indicate that the rainfall in this area has moved downstream. In addition, the form of VAR model could explain the variety of the relationships ranging between 6.4% - 70.1%. These analyses could be improved by using rainfall and river discharge time series data measured in shorter time interval but in longer period.


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Journal Info

Abbrev

FG

Publisher

Subject

Earth & Planetary Sciences

Description

Forum Geografi, Indonesian Journal of Spatial and Regional Analysis (For. Geo) is an open access, peer-reviewed journal that will consider any original scientific article for expanding the field of geography. The journal publishes articles in both physical and human geography specialties of interest ...