International Journal of Supply Chain Management
Vol 8, No 3 (2019): International Journal of Supply Chain Management (IJSCM)

The Forecasting of Foreign Tourists Arrival in Indonesia based on the Supply Chain Management: an Application of Artificial Neural Network and Holt winters Approaches

Supriatna, Agus (Unknown)
Hertini, Elis (Unknown)
Saputra, Jumadil (Unknown)
Subartini, Betty (Unknown)
Azkiya Robbani, Alfan (Unknown)



Article Info

Publish Date
25 Jun 2019

Abstract

Tourism plays crucial role for improving the social and economic development of a country through open employment opportunities in surrounding tourism area. The supply chain mangement strategy can be effective in developing the turisim industry.The number of foreign tourists who come to Indonesia continues to increase from time to time. Therefore, tourist arrivals need to be forecasted to assist the government in providing optimal infrastructure and accommodation for tourists to avoid an imbalance between the number of tourists with the infrastructure and accommodation provided. The purpose of this study is to forecast the arrival of foreign tourists in Indonesia by using Artificial Neural Network and Holt-Winters approach esutilising the historical data from January 2011 to December 2017. From the calculation process, we found that MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) value of Artificial Neural Network and Holt-Winters approaches are 5.60% and 5.43%, respectively. So it can be concluded that the Holt-Winters approach is better than the Artificial Neural Network approaches in forecasting the foreign tourists arrival in Indonesia.

Copyrights © 2019






Journal Info

Abbrev

IJSCM

Publisher

Subject

Decision Sciences, Operations Research & Management Engineering Environmental Science Industrial & Manufacturing Engineering Transportation

Description

International Journal of Supply Chain Management (IJSCM) is a peer-reviewed indexed journal, ISSN: 2050-7399 (Online), 2051-3771 (Print), that publishes original, high quality, supply chain management empirical research that will have a significant impact on SCM theory and practice. Manuscripts ...