Setyo Tri Wahyudi
Universitas Brawijaya Malang

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Keterkaitan antara Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dengan Beban Utang, Investasi, dan Pertumbuhan Populasi (Studi Kasus Indonesia Tahun 1970-2011)

Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol 1, No 2: Semester Genap 2012/2013
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Utang merupakan bagian dari kebijakan fiskal pemerintah yang menjadi bagian dari kebijakan pengelolaan keuangan secara keseluruhan. Kebijakan pengelolaan ekonomi sendiri pada akhirnya bertujuan untuk menciptakan kesejahteraan rakyat yang dapat tercermin melalui penciptaan lapangan kerja, pengurangan kemiskinan, dan penguatan pertumbuhan ekonomi. Semua tujuan tersebut mempunyai dampak penciptaan rasa aman dalam perekonomian negara, baik untuk pemerintah maupun masyarakat. Penelitian ini menggunakan data seri perekonomian Indonesia tahun 1970 sampai dengan 2011 dengan metode Vector Error Correction Mechanism (VECM) untuk mengetahui keterkaitan antara pertumbuhan ekonomi dengan beban utang, investasi, dan pertumbuhan populasi di Indonesia dalam rentang waktu tersebut serta melihat hubungan jangka pendek dan jangka panjang antar variabel Hasil empiris mengindikasikan bahwa dalam jangka pendek, beban utang, investasi, dan pertumbuhan populasi  tidak mempunyai pengaruh signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, sedangkan dalam jangka panjang beban utang dan investasi berpengaruh negatif dan signifikan, sedangkan pertumbuhan populasi tidak berpengaruh  signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Kata Kunci : pertumbuhan ekonomi, beban utang, investasi, pertumbuhan populasi, VECM.

Analisis Hubungan Kausalitas antara Pertumbuhan Ekonomi dan Pengeluaran Pemerintah di Indonesia

Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol 2, No 2: Semester Genap 2013/2014
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This research aims to find out how the relationship of causality between economic growth and government expenditure. Government expenditure is divided according to the functions of the general services, the functions of defense, security and public order, the economic function and the function of education. Using the Toda-Yamamoto Causality  Test,  that   can be used in time-series data with different levels of integration, we found unidirectional causality relationship between economic growth and government expenditure in which government expenditure affect economic growth that supports Wagner’s Law. On expenditure by function,  we  found the relationship that supports  Keynessian aproach between economic growth and the government expenditure in economic functions . In another functions  of  government  expenditure we  not found the existence of a relationship of causality with economic growth.Keyword: Economic Growth, Government Expenditure, Toda-Yamamoto Causality Test

THE ANALYSIS ON THE EFFECTS OF DEPOSIT INTEREST RATE, MONEY SUPPLY AND INFLATION ON HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION IN INDONESIA DURING 1983-2013

Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol 3, No 1: Semester Ganjil 2014/2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

The aim of  this  research  is  to  acknowledge the macroeconomic variable’s influences of  interest rate deposit, the amount of money supply (M2), and the inflation to the household’s consumption in Indonesia. The data used in this research is time series data from 1983 to 2013. After studying literature and testing the data using Error Correction Model (ECM) method, it showed that Interest Rate Deposit, money supply (M2) and inflation simultaneously have a significant effect in short term period and longed term period. Partially, Interest Rate Deposit has an unsignificant negative effect, The sum of money supply (M2) has a significant positive effect, and the inflation has a significant negative effect  to  the household’s consumption in short term period. While in longed term period, Interest Rate Deposit has a significant negative effect, the sum of money circulation (M2) and the inflation have a significant positive effect to the household’s consumption. Keywords:  Household Consumption, Deposit Interest Rate, Money Supply (M2), Inflation, Error Correction Model (ECM).

THE BILATERAL TRADE OF INDONESIA : THE GRAVITY MODEL APPROACH

Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol 3, No 1: Semester Ganjil 2014/2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This study aims to examine the trade of Indonesia with 10 top export partner from 2003-2013 using the gravity model of trade. The panel regression analysis with fixed  effect model was conducted in ordered to acknowledge the relationship among the independent variables (Constant Gross Domestic Product, Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, transportation cost, Real Effective Exchange Rate) on export of Indonesia with 10 partners. This study using secondary data with panel regression analysis and research instruments were tested using chow test, hausman test and classical assumption test. The panel regression result showed that simultaneously and partially Constant Gross Domestic Product, Per Capita Gross Domestic Product , transportation cost and Real Effective Exchange Rate had significant effect on export of Indonesia.Keywords  :  gravity model, export, constant gross domestic  product, per capita gross domestic product, transportation cost, real effective exchange rate

Kemampuan Faktor Keuangan dan Non Keuangan dalam Memprediksi Peringkat Obligasi Korporasi (Studi Kasus Pada Industri Perbankan Yang Tercatat di Bursa Efek Indonesia Periode 2011-2013)

Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol 3, No 1: Semester Ganjil 2014/2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

Peringkat obligasi merupakan salah satu  indikator  penting dari obligasi suatu perusahaan, karena melalui peringkat yang diberikan dapat digunakan untuk menilai resiko yang mungkin terjadi di masa mendatang. Lembaga pemeringkat mengacu pada PT Pefindo karena perusahaan yang terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia lebih banyak menggunakan jasa PEFINDO dalam proses pemeringkatannya. Tujuan dari penelitian ini untuk mengetahui bagaimana pengaruh profitabilitas, likuiditas, leverage, ukuran perusahaan (size), maturity dan jaminan dalam memprediksi peringkat (rating) obligasi korporasi di industri perbankan tahun 2011-2013.  Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah rasio profitabilitas, rasio likuiditas, rasio leverage, ukuran perusahaan, maturity dan jaminan sebagai variabel independen dan peringkat obligasi sebagai variabel dependen. Rasio profitabilitas diukur dengan net profit margin (X1), rasio likuiditas diukur dengan loan to deposit ratio (X2), rasioleverage diukur dengan debt to equity ratio (X3), ukuran perusahaan (X4), maturity (X5), jaminan (X6) dan peringkat obligasi (Y). Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah model tobit dengan bantuan program Eviews 6.0.  Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa varibel rasio likuiditas yang dinilai dengan  loan to deposit ratio, ukuran perusahaan, maturity dan jaminan signifikan dalam mempengaruhi peringkat obligasi, sedangkan rasio proftabilitas yang dinilai dengan net profit margin dan rasio leverage yang dinilai dengan debt to equity ratio tidak signifikan dalam mempengaruhi peringkat obligasi.Kata kunci: Peringkat Obligasi, Profitabilitas, Likuiditas, Leverage, Ukuran Perusahaan, Maturity, Jaminan

DETERMINAN PERTUMBUHAN KREDIT MODAL KERJA PERBANKAN di INDONESIA

Jurnal Ilmiah Mahasiswa FEB Vol 3, No 1: Semester Ganjil 2014/2015
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Brawijaya

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Abstract

This research aims to find out the effect of working capital  loan interest rates, non performing loans, third party funds growth and inflation on working capital loans growth. Analysis of data using  Error Correction Model (ECM) Domowitz  -  El Badawi. Using this method, it can be analyzed the impact of short-term and long-term between  dependent variable and  independent variable with analytical techniques for correcting speed of adjustment in the short-term. The results of this research, in the short term only non performing loans are significant  negative effect on the working capital loans growth. For long-term relationship, working capital loan interest rates have a significant negative effect , third party funds growth have a significant positive effect and inflation have a significant negative effect.Keyword: Credit Growth, Non Performing Loans, Third Party Funds, Inflation, ECM Domowitz-El Badawi

The Gravity Model of Indonesian Bilateral Trade

e-2477-1929
Publisher : Institute of Research and Community Service, University of Brawijaya

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Abstract

 This study aims to examine the trade of Indonesia with 10 top export partner using the gravity model of trade. The panel regression analysis with fixed effect model was conducted in order to acknowledge the relationship among the variables Constant Gross Domestic Product, Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, transportation cost, and Real Effective Exchange Rate on export of Indonesia with 10 partners. This study using secondary data with panel regression analysis and research instruments were tested using chow test, hausman test and classical assumption test. The panel regression result showed that simultaneously and partially Constant Gross Domestic Product, Per Capita Gross Domestic Product, transportation cost and Real Effective Exchange Rate had significant effect on export of Indonesia.    

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA, 1980-2004: A CAUSALITY APPROACH

Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 24, No 3 (2009): September
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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Abstract

Foreign investment, in addition to domestic investment, is one of the driving sources of a nations economy, because of its ability to create jobs and allow the transfer oftechnology that in turn encourages economic growth. Significant role contributed by these investments, in the context of Indonesia, can be seen from its contribution to the national economy.This study aims to determine the relationship between investment and economic growth in Indonesia. Using the data of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and GDP on 1980-2004 periods, and method of causality, this study tried to answer the question of whether investment causes economic growth or whether economic growth causes investment.To examine the relationship between two variables, there are three steps test conducted, unit roots test (using the ADF test); co integration test (using the Johansen cointegration test); and causality test (using the Granger Causality test). Conclusion indicated that investment affects economic growth.Keywords: Foreign direct investment, economic growth, granger causality.

THE IMPACT OF MANUFACTURING CONCENTRATION ON REGIONAL INEQUALITY: A CASE OF REGENCY IN JAVA REGION, INDONESIA

Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 27, No 1 (2012): January
Publisher : Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business

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Abstract

Concentration of manufacturing is an interesting topic in location of economic activity since manufacturing was the leading sector in the Indonesian economy. The previousstudies demonstrated that firms were localized in major metropolitan areas as well as a set of emerging regions. The paper aim to complement the findings of the previous studiesrelated to geographical concentration of manufacturing industry by exploring the impact of manufacturing concentration on regional inequality in the regency in Java during the 1998-2007. The Theil index and the location quotient index are employed in order to analysis the inequality and the location of manufacturing industry in Java region.The study found that the Theil index shows an increasing trend implying that the inequality of the manufacturing industry within regencies has increase. While, the inequality between regency shows a decreasing trend over the period of observation implying that the manufacturing industry in Java spreads only in several regencies. The location quotient index shows an increasing trend that reveals the economy of some regencies are more dependent in manufacturing industry and at the same time it shows that several new manufacturing areas has emerged in Java.Keywords: concentration, inequality, manufacturing, Java region

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA, 1980-2004: A CAUSALITY APPROACH

Journal of Indonesian Economy and Business Vol 24, No 3 (2009): September
Publisher : Faculty of Economics and Business, Universitas Gadjah Mada

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Abstract

Foreign investment, in addition to domestic investment, is one of the driving sources of a nations economy, because of its ability to create jobs and allow the transfer oftechnology that in turn encourages economic growth. Significant role contributed by these investments, in the context of Indonesia, can be seen from its contribution to the national economy.This study aims to determine the relationship between investment and economic growth in Indonesia. Using the data of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and GDP on 1980-2004 periods, and method of causality, this study tried to answer the question of whether investment causes economic growth or whether economic growth causes investment.To examine the relationship between two variables, there are three steps test conducted, unit roots test (using the ADF test); co integration test (using the Johansen cointegration test); and causality test (using the Granger Causality test). Conclusion indicated that investment affects economic growth.Keywords: Foreign direct investment, economic growth, granger causality.