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PERKIRAAN DAMPAK KRISIS KEUANGAN TERHADAP EKONOMI, KHUSUSNYA SEKTOR PERTANIAN DAN AGRIBISNIS DI INDONESIA TAMBUNAN, MANGARA
SOCA (SOCIO-ECONOMIC OF AGRICULTURRE AND AGRIBUSINESS) Vol. 1, No. 1 Februari 2001
Publisher : Program Studi Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Udayana Jalan PB.Sudirman Denpasar, Bali, Indonesia. Telp: (0361) 223544 Email: soca@unud.ac.id

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Abstract

Beginning from the monetary crisis of Bath-Thailand, then gradually to spread tosouth-east Asia Countries and finally has been Indonesia monetary crisis started the thirdweek in July 1997. Monetary crisis this time to indicate that Indonesia economics more andmore open and integrated with world economics. Really Indonesia to face three kind crisisi.e.: (1) Exchange rate crisis where depreciation of rupiah value toward dollars, (2) foreigndebt crisis in big quantity, which made by private and government, and (3) probably soinfected by diminishing expectation of the community toward various of economics andfinancial institutionsTo measure the impact of monetary crisis toward quantitatively economics can be notacted now yet. What that can be acted is to expect its impacts toward economics, especially toagriculture or agribusiness sectors. For need of this research-collected macroeconomics datain the last time that sources from secondary data, processed and analyzed. Because thisresearch especially to expect the impact of monetary crisis toward agriculture or agribusinesssectors, so the agriculture data collected, processed and analyzed detailer.The result of analysis to indicate that monetary crisis in Indonesia that indicated by hasbeen weak of rupiah value to dollars, has impact toward agriculture or agribusiness sectors.Yet, impact intensity depend on: (1) sources of raw material (domestic or foreign), (2)structure of output marketing for domestic or international, and (3) structure of capital, equityand firm portfolio of agribusiness mentioned. Viewed from costly structure and return, soportion of import of input and export of output in agriculture sector significantly to influencetoward performance of agriculture or agribusiness sectors.For the agriculture or agribusiness firms that using domestic raw material in theirsproduction process, monetary crisis maybe not influence so big, if mostly theirs outputexported, this crisis will positive impact. Yet, if agriculture or agribusiness firms using rawmaterial from foreign in its production process (example cotton), monetary crisis has influencetoward costs structure (increase the cost of input and output per unit) to be bigger. If theirsoutput market for domestic, so will be gloomier. In this condition, monetary crisis has negativeinfluence toward performance of agribusiness mentioned.Result of the monetary crisis, need be acted a reevaluation to measure rate of return(ROI) investment in agriculture sector. In the last time ROR in agriculture sector only range15 percent. Not impossible if this monetary crisis has made the populace agriculture is notinteresting for investor.
PERKEMBANGAN KONSUMSI DAN PENYEDIAAN ENERGI DALAM PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Priyarsono, D S; Tambunan, Mangara; Firdaus, Muhammad
IJAE ( Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia ) Vol 2, No 01 (2010)
Publisher : IJAE ( Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia )

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Abstract

Indonesia is one country that is extravagant in energy utilization. On the otherhand the energy supply is relatively stagnant and even showed a declining trend,particularly in fuel oil supply. Therefore very interesting to discuss about thedevelopment of energy consumption based on the users and the energy supply by typeof energy. Trend analysis is used to show the pattern in energy supply by type of energyand energy consumption according to the user, combined with a descriptive analysis todescribe the problems and advantages of the fluctuations that occur from the results oftrend analysis are presented.The results show that the energy consumption across all sectors, namelyindustrial sector, household sector, transport sector, agriculture and other sectors, tendsto increase. Meanwhile, the overall energy supply tends to increase, but with a smallerincrease than the increase of consumption. This results in Indonesia is highly dependenton imports, especially imports of fuel oil.In order to solve the energy problem in Indonesia is needed for energyconservation, namely by making energy savings campaign, the establishment of energyconservation laws, and establishment of energy conservation center. Besides, it alsorequired a low interest rate policy and a stable exchange rate to encourage investment inenergy sector for increased crude oil production and counteract the negative impact ofrising world oil prices which led to decrease of energy supply. In the long term need toattempt to shift the use of energy sourced from unrenewable resources to the use ofenergy that are renewable resources, such as utilization of water energy, wind, biomass,biodiesel, biogas and sustainable energy sources other. In other words needed greenenergy strategy.
Impact of Fiscal Policy on Food Security in North Sumatera Province Situmorang, Boyke T. H.; ., Harianto; Tambunan, Mangara; Kusnadi, Nunung
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol 33, No 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The purposes of this research were, (1) to analyze fiscal policy impact on food security performance and (2) to determine strategic policy on food security in North Sumatera Province.  Model of fiscal policy in North Sumatera Province which was built with the dynamic simultaneous equations system and used 2SLS with SYSLIN and SIMNLIN procedures.  In this study we also used pooled data in 1990-2007 period.  The results of this study showed that (1) factors of  fiscal performance in North Sumatera, i.e. local tax and tax sharing were influenced by local GDP positively, otherwise general alocation funds and local retribution were not  influenced by local GDP; (2) during fiscal policy, food security performance increased, which was interpreted with increasing on live expectation age, decreasing infant mortality number, and malnutrition number; (3) in simulation section, decreasing of illiteracy and health expenditure gave better impact on food security and also increasing local GDP than other simulation.  Fiscal policy, especially in health and education sector, will stimulate quality social life in the future.   Key words: local fiscal policy, food security, simultaneous equations
Effectiveness Analyses of Fiscal Policy on Agricultural Sector Performance With Emphasises of Agroindustries in Indonesia ., Darsono; Tambunan, Mangara; Siregar, Hermanto; Priyarsono, D. S.
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol 31, No 3 (2008): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The objectives of this research were analyzing the performance of agricultural  sector and agroindustry, relation between fiscal policy and performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry; analyzing fiscal policy instruments which were effective in influencing the agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance, and relation between agricultural sector performance and agroindustry performance within fiscal condition of Indonesia. Data time series 1970.1 – 2005.5 were analyzed with Vector Error Correction Model (VECM).  Research results showed that decrease in the performance of agriculture sector occurred in all aspects and its role in the economy, and the same phenomena occurred also in agroindustry.  Instruments of fiscal policy which in the long term affect strongly the performance of agricultural sector and agroindustry were budgets for the following: sector of agriculture, agricultural research and development, agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization. Performance respond of agricultural sector and agroindustry toward shock  of fiscal policy instruments, to achieve stability, took relatively long period (9 and 8 years respectively). Performance respond of agroindustry toward shock of agricultural sector, to achieve stability, took 6 years period.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving  agricultural sector performance were value added tax, agriculture subsidy, budget for agriculture research and development, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Instruments of fiscal policy which were in the long term effective in improving the performance of agroindustry were income tax, value added tax, budget for agriculture infrastructure, and fiscal decentralization.  Performance of agricultural sector which had roles in affecting the variability of agroindustry performance were GDP of agriculture, export and import of agricultural products. Key words:  fiscal policy, agricultural sector, agroindustry
The Impact of Human Capital Investment on Income Distribution and Poverty Incidence in Indonesia Sitepu, Rasidin Karo Karo; Sinaga, Bonar M.; Oktaviani, Rina; Tambunan, Mangara
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol 32, No 2 (2009): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The research objectives are to analyze impact of human capital investment on income distribution and poverty incidence using the computable general equilibrium (CGE) Model.  The model is combined with beta distribution function and Foster-Greer-Thorbecke.  The human capital investment is approached by government expenditure for education and health.  The simulation result shows that human capital investment is able to increase economic growth and household income.  Income distribution especially in rural area becomes more equal which is shown by the beta distribution move to the right side of poverty line.  Poverty incidence, poverty gap and poverty severity also decrease except for non-labor household group in the urban area.  Human capital investment gives more benefit to household in rural area than those in urban area especially for farm-laborer and agriculture entrepreneur household group in the rural area.   Key words: CGE model, Foster-Greer-Thorbecke, beta distribution function, human capital investment, poverty line
Analysis of Structural Change Pattern and Source of Growth in The West Java Economy Nugrahadi, Eko Wahyu; Tambunan, Mangara; Siregar, Hermanto; Darjanto, Arief
Forum Pasca Sarjana Vol 33, No 2 (2010): Forum Pascasarjana
Publisher : Forum Pasca Sarjana

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Abstract

The main objective of this study is to analyze the structural change pattern and source of growth in the West Java economy 1993-2003 period.  The analysis was using econometric, IO (input-ouput) and SAM (social accounting matrix) approach.  The results of this study are: (1) economic structural transformation are drawn by declining of agriculture share both in output and employment, and household income distribution in this province are not equal, and (2) source of output growth are dominated by domestic final demand and export, while employment growth are dominated by labour intensity and technical coefficient.  The implication of this study is maintain industrialization policy through ADLI and export promotion industry strategy.   Key words: structural change pattern and source of growth
DISAIN LEMBAGA PEMBIAYAAN PERTANIAN NASIONAL SUBSEKTOR TANAMAN PANGAN MENGGUNAKAN PENDEKATAN INTEPRETATIVE STRUCTURAL MODELING (ISM) Saptono, Imam Teguh; Marimin, Marimin; Tambunan, Mangara; Oktaviani, Rina
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol 7, No 2 (2010): Vol. 7 No. 2 Oktober 2010
Publisher : Graduate Program of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University

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Abstract

In year 2009, the agricultural sector contributed around 15% of Indonesia’s GDP, and absorbed around 44 million of total workforce. As the biggest GDP contributor and workforce absorption within the sector, foodcrops holds a strategic role in providing national food security. In line with ensuring food security program government has promulgated a national agricultural revitalization agenda, which one of the programs is providing a financing scheme for small scale farmer. At the implementation level, the program was not performed yet, due to the weaknesses of existing institutions.In turn it resulted in the significant gap of financing and investment in the agricultural sector. The aim of this research is to design a model of financial institution a nation wide level, focussing on foodcrops financing using Interpretative Structural Modeling (ISM) which then supported by Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). The combination of ISM, systems approach and AHP are designated to accommodate the complexity of the object. The respondents involved are experts from various related institutions.  ISM analysis indicated that price stability, government commitment, geographic coverage, suitability of the institution with local conditions, and return of investment are strong sub-elements drivers among the sub-elements of the system. The recommendation of institution design by using AHP is to develop a new non-bank financial institution, set up by the government that focuses their financing baesd on supply chain approach. (Key words:   Financial Institution,  Foodcrops, ISM, AHP)                   
DAMPAK PERUBAHAN PRODUKTIVITAS SEKTORAL BERBASIS INVESTASI TERHADAP DISPARITAS EKONOMI ANTAR WILAYAH DAN KONDISI MAKROEKONOMI DI INDONESIA Purnamadewi, Yeti Lis; Tambunan, Mangara; Oktaviani, Rina; Daryanto, Arief
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol 7, No 2 (2010): Vol. 7 No. 2 Oktober 2010
Publisher : Graduate Program of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University

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Abstract

The objective of this study is  to examine the impact of  sectoral investment on regional disparity, and macroeconomic performances in Indonesia.  Investment have an important role in increasing productivity in order to encourage economic growth and equity. Investment allocation in Indonesia is biased to industry sector and to Java island.  Eventhough structural change in Indonesian economy have been excisting, this structural change is associated with the shift from a predominantly agricultural economy to one dominated by the industry and service sectors, but most of the regional economy are still dominated by agriculture sector and this sector has highest contribution on employment absorption.  Model of CGE multiregional is a comfortable method to analyse that aims of the study. The main finding was that the priority of investment allocation into the agriculture, agro-industry and infrastructure sectors or implementation of the ADLI strategy  supported by infrastructure construction results the best impact on growth and on decreasing regional disparity.  But, the ADLI strategy supported by infrastructure construction has a weakly impact on increasing the investment expenditure and export. 
FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI SUSTAINABILITAS PERTUMBUHAN FINANSIAL LEMBAGA KEUANGAN MIKRO DI JAWA TIMUR Sundari, Siti; Daryanto, Arief; Tambunan, Mangara; Saefuddin, Asep
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol 9, No 1 (2012): Vol. 9 No. 1 Maret 2012
Publisher : Graduate Program of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University

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Abstract

Since the monetary crisis in 1998, Indonesias economy has not fully recovered as indicated by slow economic growth which has not reached yet 8% each year. These conditions load to growing number of unemployed and hence create many demand from the large number of micro enterprise for loan. There were about 50 million micro entrepreneurs which was served only by 56 thousand units of MFIs (Microfinance Institution). This fact intrigued a deep comprehensive analysis at supply side, i.e. the MFIs. The analysis was to study factors that inhibit the sustainability growth of MFIs in order to increase the number of micro business loans. The research was located in East Java province due to the fact that more than 70% MFIs located in Java island and the largest MFIs is in East Java. The samples were obtained by purposive sampling technique and then analysed using descriptive statistics, ordinal logistic regression and biplot. The result proved that the factors which significantly influence the growth of financial sustainability were Regulation, Institutions, Efficiency, CAR (Capital Adequacy Ratio), ROE (Return on Equity), ROA (Return on Asset), LDR (Loan to Deposit Ratio), loan, NPL (Non Performing Loan), HRD (Human Resources Development) and Interest rates. While the factors that did not have significant effect were competition and income per capita.Keyword : Microfinance Institutions (MFIs), Performance Analyze, Financial Sustainability, Ordinal Logistic Regression
DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN PENGEMBANGAN BAHAN BAKAR NABATI TERHADAP DINAMIKA HARGA KOMODITAS PANGAN DAN ENERGI NASIONAL DENGAN PENDEKATAN MODEL SISTEM DINAMIS M, Eka Denny; Kusnadi, Nunung; Tambunan, Mangara; Firdaus, M
IJAE ( Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia ) Vol 2, No 2 (2011)
Publisher : IJAE ( Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Pertanian Indonesia )

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Abstract

The increasing consumption of fossil fuels and the limitation of its availability are twomajor causes of the fluctuating trends of fossil fuels prices. They are also believed tohave created instability of certain feedstock prices since alternative energy used as thesubstitution of fossil fuels is based on this feedstock as well.This research is aimed onreviewing the correlation between the dynamic movement of the prices of crude palmoil (CPO) which is used in the production of biodiesel and the government policy ondeveloping renewable fuels using dynamics system approach. In particular, this researchwill examine whether policy to try increase CPO export tax to 20 % and to allocate 50%of CPO production for domestic need will influence the effort of fullfilling mandatorytarget for biodiesel to contribute at least 5% of the total national energy consumption by2025 and CPO prices trends.Keyword: dynamics system, CPO, biodiesel, fossil fuel