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Aplikasi Teknik Data Driven untuk Prediksi Debit Sungai Bulanan Studi Kasus Bendung Loning, Magelang

Rona Teknik Pertanian Vol 9, No 2 (2016): Volume 9, No. 2, Oktober 2016
Publisher : Program Studi Teknik Pertanian, Fakultas Pertanian, Universitas Syiah Kuala

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Abstract

Abstrak. Model prediksi debit sungai sangat penting dalam perencanaan, desain dan manajemen sumberdaya air. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk membandingkan akurasi prediksi debit bulanan sungai Loning di DAS Loning Magelang menggunakan pendekatan model data driven. Pembentukan model didasarkan pada model deret waktu debit bulanan menggunakan data debit bulanan antara Januari 1990 hingga Desember 2015. Tiga model data driven yaitu ARIMA, ANFIS dan FFNN digunakan untuk prediksi debit bulanan sungai Loning periode 2014 - 2015. Indeks error (RMSE dan MAPE) dan koefisien Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NS) digunakan untuk mengevaluasi akurasi prediksi model. Hasil penelitian diperoleh nilai RMSE, MAPE dan NS model FFNN adalah 8,422 lt/ dt, 22.79 % dan 0.709, untuk  model ANFIS 9,465 lt/dt, 25.62 % dan 0.633, sedangkan model ARIMA diperoleh  9,710 lt/dt, 27. 32 % dan 0.614.  Nilai indeks error tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa model FFNN lebih sesuai untuk simulasi dan prediksi debit bulanan sungai Loning dibandingkan model ANFIS dan ARIMA. Application Data Driven Technique for Monthly Runoff Forecasting: A Case Study of Loning Dam, Magelang Abstract. The development of runoff forecasting model is one of the most important aspects in water resources planning, design and management. This study aimed to compare the accuracy data driven models for simulation and forecasting the monthly runoff data of Loning river, Loning Watershed Magelang. The models were developed based on time series model, and monthly data collected over 26 year period from January 1990 to December 2015.  Three data driven models, ARIMA, ANFIS and FFNN models, were used for forecasting monthly runoff for period 2014 -2015. The index error, root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NS) were employed to evaluate the performances of model developed. The RMSE, MAPE and NS indices were obtained as 8,422 lt/s, 22.79 % and 0.709 for FFNN model, as 9,465 lt/s, 25.62 % and 0.633 for ANFIS and as 9,710 lt/s, 27. 32 % and 0.614 for ARIMA model. The result indicated that FFNN model appear to be better than ARIMA and ANFIS model for simulation and forecasting the monthly runoff Loning river.

Evaluasi Pemanfaatan Kode Pos

Buletin Pos dan Telekomunikasi Vol 9, No 3 (2011): September 2011
Publisher : R&D Center of Post dan Informatics Resources and Equipments (Puslitbang SDPPI)

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Abstract

Kode Pos adalah sederetan angka atau huruf atau gabungan angka dan huruf yang dituliskan di belakang nama kota untuk memudahkan penyortiran, penyampaian kiriman, dan keperluan lain. Undang-Undang No.38 tahun 2009 tentang Pos, mengatur penyelenggaraan layanan pos tidak hanya di PT.Pos Indonesia namun juga penyelenggara Swasta/ Jasa Titipan, BUMD dan Koperasi maka konsekuensinya adalah penulisan kodepos harus dilakukan oleh pengguna dan penyelenggara layanan pos tanpa pengecualian. Untuk mengetahui seberapa besar pemanfaatan Kode Pos dilakukan evaluasi terhadap pemanfaatan Kode Pos saat ini,dengan pendekatan kuantitatif didukung data kualitatif. Evaluasi dilakukan dengan Model Evaluasi Husein Umar,2003 dengan modifikasi dan hasilnya adalah lebih dari lima puluh persen responden menyatakan memanfaatkan namun tidak tahu Kode Pos.

Penentuan Laju Irigasi di Lahan Pertanian Kecamatan Sangatta Selatan Menggunakan Model Infiltrasi Terpilih

Jurnal Pertanian Terpadu Jurnal Pertanian Terpadu Jilid V nomor 1 Juni 2017
Publisher : Sekolah Tinggi Pertanian Kutai Timur

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Abstract

Laju infiltrasi ke dalam tanah sangat penting dalam desain irigasi. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menentukan laju irigasi maksimum di lahan pertanian Kecamatan Sangatta Selatan. Tiga model empiris infiltrasi yaitu model infiltrasi Horton, Philip dan Kostiakov digunakan untuk memperkirakan laju infiltrasi dan membandingkan laju infiltrasi model dengan laju pengukuran di lapangan. Pengukuran laju infiltrasi di lapangan dilakukan menggunakan metode double-ring infiltrometer, sebanyak delapan titik pengukuran. Model diuji dengan membandingkan laju infiltrasi pengukuran dan hasil model, kriteria keakuratan model infiltrasi menggunakan nilai koefisien korelasii (r), uji berpasangan (t test) dan standard error (Se) antara hasil pengukuran dan hasil model untuk menentukan model infiltrasi yang lebih sesuai diterapkan di lahan pertanian Kecamatan Sangatta Selatan. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan nilai rerata koefisien korelasi 0.929, 0.856 dan 0.924 berturut-turut untuk model Horton, Philip dan Kostiakov. Nilai r tersebut mengindikasikan bahwa baik model Horton, Philip maupun Kostiakov dapat diterapkan. Nilai thitung model Horton diperoleh 2,959, lebih tinggi dari ttabel (2.074), model Philip  0.016 dan model Kostiakov 0.103. Model Kostiakov mempunyai nilai rerata standard error (Se) terkecil 0.134, sedangkan model Horton dan model Philip 0.286 dan 0.139. Maka Model Kostiakov lebih sesuai diterapkan untuk memperkirakan laju infiltrasi di lahan pertanian Kecamatan Sangatta Selatan. Rerata laju infiltrasi menggunakan model Kostiakov diperoleh 34.7 cm/jam, maka laju irigasi yang disarankan tidak melebihi 34.7 cm/jam agar tidak terjadi aliran permukaan.

DJAZMAN AL-KINDI: PENDIDIKAN DAN PERKADERAN

Tajdida: Jurnal Pemikiran dan Gerakan Muhammadiyah Vol 14, No 2 (2016): Desember
Publisher : Universitas Muhammadiyah Surakarta

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Abstract

Pendidikan adalah pilar sebuah kemajuan peradaban manusia. Di antara begitu banyak tokoh di dalam dunia pendidikan, beliau adalah Djazman Al-Kindi, atau yang bernama lengkap Mohammad Djazman Al-Kindi. Beliau selain sebagai tokoh pendidikan, beliau juga adalah aktivis sekaligus kader Muhammadiyah. Pendidikan bagi beliau harus menyatu dengan perkaderan, sebagaimana pendahulunya K.H. Ahmad Dahlan mendirikan Muhammadiyah adalah sebagai tempat untuk pencerdasan umat dan sekaligus tempat untuk melahirkan kader-kader yang akan melanjutkan kelangsungan persyarikatan tersebut. Pendidikan adalah perkaderan, tetapi di saat yang sama perkaderan adalah pendidikan. Hal ini dapat dilihat dengan didirikanya UMS oleh beliau adalah selain sebagai tempat pengkajian ilmu juga sebagai tempat membina kader-kader Muhammadiyah

PERBANDINGAN KINERJA MODEL ARIMA DAN THOMAS-FIERING DALAM MEMPREDIKSI DEBIT SUNGAI LONING, MAGELANG

AGRIFOR Vol 15, No 1 (2016): Maret
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

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Abstract

Perbandingan Kinerja Model ARIMA Dan Thomas-Fiering Dalam Memprediksi Debit Sungai Loning, Magelang. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisa data debit bulanan sungai Loning Magelang menggunakan pendekatan stokhastik. Tahap awal adalah melakukan uji konsistensi data debit menggunakan metode Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums (RAPS) untuk mendeteksi homogenitas data debit. Dua pendekatan stokhastik dalam simulasi debit bulanan sungai Loning adalah model ARIMA dan Thomas-Fiering. Indeks error (RMSE dan MAPE) prediksi dua model tersebut dibandingkan untuk menentukan model yang sesuai dalam mensimulasi debit sungai Loning. Nilai RMSE dan MAPE pada periode prediksi 2014 – 2015 diperoleh sebesar 9.710 lt/dt dan 27.23 %, 11,325 lt/dt dan 32.71 %, berturut-turut untuk model ARIMA dan Thomas-Fiering. Nilai indeks error tersebut mengidikasikan bahwa model ARIMA lebih sesuai untuk simulasi debit bulanan sungai Loning dibandingkan model Thomas-Fiering.

A Comparative Analysis of Fuzzy Clustering and K-means Clustering for 15-day Rainfall Datain DIY Province.

AGRIFOR Vol 16, No 2 (2017): Oktober
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

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Abstract

This study aimed to compare performance two clustering methods (fuzzy c-means and K-means) on the basis validity index. The study used daily rainfall data for twenty five years (1985 to 2009) from 22 stations covering the DIY Province. PCA is used to reduce number 15-day rainfall variables and transform into new variable. Four validity index clustering: Xie-Beni index (XB), sum squared error (SSE), silhouette (Si) and standard deviation ratio (Sw/Sb) are used for compare performance of two clustering methods. The optimal number of cluster is determined using XBindex, and result SSE, Si and ratio (Sw/Sb) are compared to find appropriate clustering algoritms to 15-day rainfall data. The study results showed that the first 4 PCs explains more than 82 % of total variance, than are used for data input in fuzzy c-means and K-means algorithms. The optimal number clusters according XB index are sixand five forK-means and FCM methode, respectively.The average ratio Sw/Sb K-means methode (0.243) was smaller than fuzzy c-means methode (0.289). The Silhouette dan SSE index are 0.46 and 76, 0.24 and 254 for K-means and FCM respectively. The result indicated that K-means methodeto be better than fuzzy c-means for clustering 15-day rainfall data in DIY Province.

Trend Analysis of Rainfall Data in Magelang District Using Mann-Kendall Test and Modification Mann-Kendall Variation

AGRIFOR Vol 17, No 2 (2018): Oktober
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

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Abstract

The objective of the research was to analyzed rainfall trends from 6 rainfall stations Kajoran, Mendut, Muntilan, Ngablak, Salaman and Tempuran rainfall station in different time scales (monthly, 3-months periodicityand annual). Identification homogenity of the rainfall data period 1986-2016 for Magelang district using Rescaled Adjusted Partial Sums (RAPS) methode. The three non-parametric tests, Mann-Kendall (MK), modified Mann-Kendall (MMK), trend free prewhitening Mann-Kendall (TFPW-MK) and Sen’s slope wereemployed to assess significance of trends and detecting magnitude of trends.The results shows that monthly rainfall have no significant trend using MK, MMK, and TFPW-MK test at 0.05 level significance. Rainfall 3-month based January-February-March (JFM) period Kajoran station have negative significant trend with magnitude 19.4 mm/3-month. Mendut station have positive trend for April-May-June (AMJ) period with magnitude 6.75 mm/3-month. No significant trends at 0.05 level significance using MK trend test were detected in annual rainfall for 6 rainfall stations.

Analyzing Influential Factors Against Timeliness of Financial Reporting (Empirical Study of Automation and Components and Telecommunication Companies Listed on Indonesia Stock Exchange).

Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Akuntansi Vol 11 No 2 (2016): Jurnal Ilmiah Wahana Akuntansi
Publisher : Fakultas Ekonomi, Universitas Negeri Jakarta

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Abstract

This research aims to examine the effect of the relationship between firm size, profitability, solvency, public ownership, and the audit opinion on the timeliness of financial reporting. The dependent variable in the form of timekeeping company deliver the financial statements to the Stock Exchange. Meanwhile for the independent variables such as firm size measured by total asets of the company, profitability is measured by profit margin ratio, solvency measured by debt-to-equity ratio, public ownership is measured by the percentage of the number of shares owned by the community, and the audit opinion is measured with an unqualified opinion and otherwise unqualified. This study uses secondary data with population automotive companies and telecommunications components and annual financial statements issued on the Stock Exchange in the period 2010-2012. From the analysis conducted in this study it can be concluded that the size of the company significantly influence the timeliness of financial reporting. While profitability, solvency, public ownership, and the audit opinion does not affect the timeliness of financial reporting.   Keywords:       Company Size, Profitability, Solvency, Public Shareholding, Opinion Audit and Financial Reporting Timeliness.

Peta Penanaman Modal Asing (PMA) dan Penanaman Modal Dalam Negeri

Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan Vol 18, No 1 (2010)
Publisher : Pusat Penelitian Ekonomi-LIPI

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to describe the spread of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and domestic investment according to its location, sector, and labour absorption. Analysis is based on secondary data published by Indonesia Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM). There are three main findings in this study: First, this study found that in the period 2002-2008, the largest part of FDI or domestic investment. This uneven investment concertration occured because in the eye of investors, Java and Sumatera is more attractive than other island in Indonesia in term of better infrastructure, wider potential market and higher quality of human resources. Second, the majority of foreign and domestic investors selected secondary sector (manufacturing) for their investment. Interestingly, there was a trend that those investments shifted from secondary sector to tertiary sector. Third, labour absorption both in FDI and domestic investment, particulary invetsed in the secondary sector tend to increase. However, there is a tendency that investment in secondary and tertiary sectors moved to less labour intensive industries.

Increased Production of Mustard (Brassica juncea L.) with Application Capillary-Irrigation System

AGRIFOR Vol 18, No 1 (2019): Maret
Publisher : Universitas 17 Agustus 1945 Samarinda

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Abstract

Increased Production of Mustard (Brassica juncea L.) with Application Capillary-Irrigation System. Application of capillary irrigation system on mustard is expected to increase the crop productivity. The aims of this study was to calculate the use of water of mustard with application capillary irrigation using  wick and flanneland to determine the best combination of irrigation capillary tools of capillarity system. The design of this study used two factors and three replications. The first factor was wick materials (S), consistings two level: the flannel wick (S1), and stove wick (S2). The second factor was the dosage sawdust (M), consists two level: 0 % of sawdust (M1), and 50 % of sawdust (M2).The research results showed that total water use of M1S1 is 169.7 ml and M1S2 is 107,91 ml, M2S1 is 198.4 ml, and M2S2 is 151.76 ml. The best combination of this research obtain on M2S1, the second cultivating media, the soil by using soil with silty clay loamtexture which mixed50 % of sawdust and the wick of flannel.