Budhi Arta Surya
School of Business and Management, Institut Teknologi Bandung, Indonesia

Published : 14 Documents
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Application of Value at Risk for Managing Portfolio Currencies of Transaction Exposure: A Case Study of Trade Payables in PT. United Tractors, Tbk. Fiksriyoso, Nisham; Surya, Budhi Arta
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 2, No 8 (2013)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract

United Tractors has some trade payables to foreign related parties in various currencies at certain maturity. United Tractors has potential downside risk in facing unfavorable movement of the foreign exchange rates. The currencies are United States Dollar (USD), Japanese Yen (JPY), Euro (EUR), Australian Dollar  (AUD) and Singapore Dollar (SGD), while the Company use Indonesian Rupiah (IDR) as the entity’s functional currency. In 2011, one of subsidiaries recorded 3.6 billion IDR losses in the other comprehensive expense (derivatives). Topic of final project is concern on transaction exposure arising from trade payables regardless of what payables are being and how much units to transact. This research aims to apply and compare three approaches to VAR methodology. Delta-Normal method use Variance-Covariance to compute portfolio VAR. Historical Simulation use hypothetical values taken from historical data to obtain profit/loss distribution. Monte Carlo Simulation also provides profit/loss distribution. This method implements Itô’s lemma to accomplish lognormal distribution and Cholesky factorization to solve multiple sources of risk. FX-Forward rate calculation is corresponding to each interest risk free rate of exchange rates. Based on calculation, United Tractors should hedge all units of transaction exposure in shorter period by also considering the hedging cost. The Company may implement Monte Carlo Simulation accomplished by Itô’s lemma and Cholesky factorization to measure foreign exchange risk using VAR method.  Keywords: Transaction Exposure, Value at Risk, Delta-Normal, Historical Simulation, Monte Carlo Simulation, Itô’s lemma, Cholesky Factorization.
Risk Management Analysis of Third Construction Stage in Diagnostic and Cardiac Center Building at Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital Wiryoatmojo, Aulia Suyono; Surya, Budhi Arta
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 2, No 11 (2013)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract

Dr. Hasan Sadikin General Hospital (HSGH) is a teaching hospital as well as a tertiary referral hospital for West Java province. To support this role, HSGH is required to be capable of providing a high quality health services corresponding to the demands of society. Following this, the development of Diagnostic and Cardiac Center Building are being carried out. However, it should be consider that there are risks that could arise at anytime in the future, along with the development of Diagnostic and Cardiac Center. Risk management analysis of Diagnostic and Cardiac Center Building done firstly through risk identification. Secondly is risk measurement. Lastly, the recommendation of risk response planning for HSGH. The identitified risks in third construction stage is 36 risks with the majority classified in moderate and high risk. Furthermore, for risk response planning there are four strategy namely acceptance, mitigation, risk transfer, and avoidance. The proposed risk response planning for risk associated with third construction stage mainly using risk transfer strategy. Keywords: Risk Management, Risk Identification, Risk Response Planning
Implication of Right Issue Cum and Ex-Date Announcement to the Stock Return(Empirical Study on Indonesia Stock Exchange Period: 2009-2012) Sugiana, Bilfian; Surya, Budhi Arta
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 2, No 12 (2013)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract

Rights issue is one of corporate actions conducted by the company in order to increase the new funds through issuance of new shares. The common purposes from issuing right issue are to improve company’s capital structure in pursuance of expanding their business as well as meet the need for a new stream of funds in terms of the debt repayment. Therefore, right issue is a signal that may be good or bad news for investor’s investment decision depending on the company’s objectives. This study aimed to test market efficiency by analyzing the right issue cum and ex-date event in Indonesia Stock Exchange. The object of this research is the content of information by observing changes in stock prices and return around observation period. To examine the object, the populations used in this study are all publicly traded companies in the Indonesian Stock Exchange (IDX) which are performed corporate action in right issue during 2009-2012 periods. The period consisting 74 events of right issues captured in the 30-days of observation. Scopes of the research covers the analysis using the event study conducted to capture market reaction reflected by the changes of abnormal return. The estimation used to test information content which implicated to the stocks return by the events in order to test the semistrong form of market efficiency using form of public information available as an object of study and selecting performance of stock that generates the best return during the event using Jensen’s Rules analysis. In the further analysis of the market reaction, company is divided into two categories which are growing and not growing companies conducted by proxy investment opportunity set (IOS) MVE/BVE. From the analysis shows that the market reacted negatively before and after the event both for growing and not growing companies by its significant abnormal return.  Keywords: Right issue, Ex-date event, Abnormal Return, Event Study, Market Efficiency, Investment Opportunity Set (IOS) MVE/BVE, Jensen’s Rule. 
Forex Trading for Beginner With Using Simple Moving Average as Main Indicator and Bollinger Bands as Support and Resistance in GBP/USD TF H1 Period July 2012 - December 2012 Sjahbunan, Adam Ultra; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 2, No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Main goal of this thesis is, how to make the beginner trader can achieve a profit quickly and easily while investing in forex, just using basic technical analysis published by master forex on the internet namely is Kang_Gun or familiarly called KG_Forex and without using a broker.  In this paper the author will use the basic theory published by KG_forex there are 4 types of Simple Moving Average as the main indicator and Bollinger Bands as a line of support or resistance. SMA 24 is useful to look at the price movement in the past period of 1 day, SMA 120 is useful to see movement in a past period of 1week, SMA 480 is useful to look at the price movement in a past period of 1 month and SMA 4 is useful to look at the price movement in past 4 hours . A cross between SMA 24 and SMA 4 and when prices have bounced back from the upper / lower Bollinger Bands. This is would be a signal for the beginning trader to perform open position. This basic method is compared with a more advanced method. This comparative method using 5 different types of Linear Weighted Moving Average as the main indicator and uses two types of Bollinger Bands as a line of support / resistance. After doing all the calculation in GBP / USD TF H1. Apparently comparative method will provide more profit than the first method. However the comparison method will give more ambiguous signal to the beginner traders. The results obtained by the first method is very adequate for beginner traders. When you do all these things in the first method with discipline they can get up to 11400 USD profit. For traders who are pretty experienced the authors suggest to propagate the information by increasing the number of indicators used and do not forget to always look for fundamental information. This thesis only focus only on GBP/USD in TF H1 using forex trading software namely Meta Trader 4. In period July 2012 – Desember 2012. The outcome of this thesis the beginner trader can investing in forex future trading without using broker and they can get enough profit at he beginning. This research can prove the efficiency of KG basic method and its easy to use it. Keywords: forex, SMA, BB, LWMA, KG_forex, investing, trading, derivative, Category:Finance; derivative, forex
Analisis Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga SBI, Exchange Rate, Ukuran Perusahaan, Debt To Equity Ratio dan Bond Terhadap Yield Obligasi Korporasi di Indonesia Surya, Budhi Arta; Nasher, Teguh Gunawan
Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi Vol 10, No 2 2011
Publisher : Jurnal Manajemen Teknologi

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Abstract

Paper ini membahas analisis serempak pengaruh beberapa variable ekonomi seperti tingkat suku bunga SBI, exchange rate, ukuran perusahaan, debt to equity ratio dan bond rating terhadap yield obligasi korporasi di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan jenis data panel, sehingga untuk memilih jenis model yang akan digunakan dilakukan beberapa pengujian. Pengujian awal yang dilakukan dalam penelitian ini adalah melakukan pengujian Chow-test untuk menentukan apakah metode pooled least square atau fixed effect dapat digunakan; serta pengujian Haussman-test untuk menentukan apakah metode fixed effect atau random effec dapat dipakai. Dengan memakai dua pengujian ini, kita dapatkan persamaan regresi umum pengaruh variable-variable ekonomi tersebut diatas terhadap yiel obligasi korporasi di Indonesia dengan tingkat signifikansi penerimaan yang bagus.Kata kunci: Analisis panel data, Chow-test, Haussmann-test, obligasi korporasi
Stress-Testing The Indonesia Economic Sectors by Shock on ITS Macroeconomic Variable ( An Analysis of Firm-Wide Probability of Default) Munich, Adrian; Surya, Budhi Arta
The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration Vol 2, No 2 (2013)
Publisher : The Indonesian Journal of Business Administration

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Abstract

Indonesia has kept its two years of living dangerously in 1997-99. During 1997-99’s crisis, Indonesia had the most exceedingly awful impact contrasted with the other countries that encountered the Asian crisis.  The recovering cost, in both cash-worth cost and inarticulate expense, was greatly towering. This accompanying figure was depicting Indonesian real sectors and external sectors from 1994-2004. Several Indonesia’s real sectors and external indicators, since 1997-99’s crisis until present, never fully-recovers to its previous low-rate condition. Economic downturn was authenticated by a decreasing wealth, parallels with the shrinkage of money power, for both buying and paying power. As we know, Indonesian 1997-99’s economic crisis has made the rupiah, Indonesian currency, take its free fall against US Dollar. Thirty years of uninterrupted economic condition of a good country with its predictable economic growth rate in South East Asia, was shocked by its own foreign exchange rate.
The Financial Feasibility Study of N219 Aircraft in Papua Lubis, Aliananda; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 3, No 2 (2014)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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The Republic of Indonesia has the largest archipelago in the world. With the geographical condition, however, there are still several areas that are isolated and difficult to reach, even not accessible by road. These conditions will make it difficult for the Government in an effort to build connectivity between areas in an attempt to equitable development. PT. Dirgantara Indonesia or known as Indonesian Aerospace (IAe) is developing a new aircraft, which is suitable for the mission of the pioneer air transportation. The aircraft is the N-219, which has capacity to carry 19 passengers and cargos and will entry into service in year 2017. The aircraft route that will be discussed specifically in this study is based in Timika, Mimika Regency, Papua. The total project cost and the revenue will determine the project calculation. Then the cost and the revenue will be used to calculate the Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and as well as Payback Period (PBP). After all of the calculation is done, then the calculation of the Sensitivity Analysis will be made. Then, the result of the calculation which are NPV, IRR, and PBP will show the project whether it is feasible or not. This final project presents to readers a clearly vision of financial production of a turboprop aircraft. It will also help the potential airlines, which may be interested on buying this kind of aircraft in the future. As for the conclusion, the NPV of the project is USD 37,004,404.- , the IRR is 27.3% (which good because its greater than the Minimum Acceptable Rate of Return), the Payback Period is 5 years 4 months (which is also good enough because it is still during the project lifetime). So from these results, it can be concluded that this project is feasible. Keywords: Aviation Routing, Feasibility Study, Sensitivity Analysis
Testing the Efficient market Hypothesis on Weak and Semi-Strong form in the Indonesian Stock market Rizkianto, Gita Denaya; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 3, No 2 (2014)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Abstract

The author tested the efficient market hypothesis on the Indonesian stock market by employing the serial correlation test to test the efficient market hypothesis on weak form level  and the Multifactor Arbitrage Pricing Theory (Multifactor APT) to test the efficient market hypothesis on semi-strong form level. For the test on the semi-strong form, the author chose 8 stocks with the highest market capitalization from 8 different sectors of the LQ45 index as the dependent variables and the JCI (Jakarta Composite Index), oil price, inflation rate, and the foreign exchange rate as the independent variables. The author has 2 purposes in this final project. The first purpose is to test whether the Indonesian stock market is efficient on both weak form level of efficiency and semi-strong form level of efficiency. The second purpose is to give recommendation to investors in analyzing the Indonesian stock market. The results of this final project show that the Indonesian stock market is not weak form efficient and it is not semi-strong form efficient. This means that investors can gain abnormal returns by doing technical analysis on the historical movements and fundamental analysis. Although individually the JCI, oil price, inflation rate, and foreign exchange rate have low predictive power, they collectively possess predictive power over the stock return in the Indonesian stock market. Key words: Efficient market hypothesis, weak form, semi-strong form, predictive power
Financial Feasibility Study of PT Jasa Medivest Refinancing Plan Muhammad, Ikhsan Armand; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 1, No 4 (2012)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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Toxic Waste is always related in every single human activities, it will never separated from the human activities because toxic waste itself produce through the activities. For most of people, the main problem is in our country, most of the business empire did not have proper toxic waste management system that cause pollution. One of the toxic waste that happens to make some problem in the world is Medical waste, this type of waste is produce from every medical activity, it can happens from a giant hospital or  private practice at home as long as there are a medical activity the happen in the area.  PT. Java Medivest is one of pioneer in medical waste management business sector, it began to operate since March 2009, with operating one unit of incinerator that have a capacity of 12 ton/day. PT. Jasa Medivest established by Foreigners Capital, with 95% of the shares is held by Pantai edivest Sdn.Bhd, Malaysia and the other 5% is for PT. Jasa Sarana. Incinerator PT. Java Medivest is in Interchange Road Toll Dawuan, Dawuan Tengah, Karawang, Jawa Barat.Purpose: The objective of this research is to determine whether the Refinancing fo PT. Java Medivest is feasible or not.Design/methodology/approach: The data will be process and analyze by concluding the problem solving model based on the method of making a good feasibility study, this model is a common type of model of concluding feasibility study.Findings: Equity capital according to the Deed Decree of Shareholder No. 25 dated November 8, 2011 made before Mala Mukti, SH, LL, M, Notary in Jakarta, with the amount of Rp.448.291.000.000, 00, divided into 48.1 million shares, each share par value is Rp.9.320, 00 . The changes, issued and paid-up capital has received approval from the Investment Coordinating Board according to his letter No. 2742/A.8/2011 dated October 31, 2011. From the capital, have been issued and paid up for 25.04% or 12,043,369 shares with a total nominal value of Rp.112.244.199.080, 00 by the shareholdersWith the proposed sale of all the shares owned by Pantai Medivest Sdn Bhd, Malaysia, the PT. Jasa Sarana is the sole shareholder. But according to the provisions Act of Limited Liability Company No. 40 of 2007, later than 6 (six) months after becoming the sole owner, PT. Jasa Sarana must release ownership of shares to investors. However PT Jasa Sarana committed will remain the majority shareholderOriginality/value: As a conclusion, the NPV of this project is Rp.2.728.182.294 and the IRR is 24,47%Keywords: Feasibility-Study; NPV; IRR; Payback-Period; Refinancing, Medical WasteCategory: Finance
Estimating the Company Value of PT Adaro Energy TBK: A coal Mining Company Mubarak, Mulham Anugrah; Surya, Budhi Arta
Journal of Business and Management Vol 1, No 5 (2012)
Publisher : Journal of Business and Management

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PT Adaro Energy Tbk is one of the major coal mining companies in Indonesia. It is currently Indonesia’s second largest thermal coal producer. PT Adaro Energy Tbk itself had been operated since 1992 in South Borneo but then it was still a small company that engaged in coal mining sector. This company releases its open public and offering period on July 8th until 10th 2008 and listed its shares in Jakarta Stock Exchange on July 16th 2008 with PT Danatama as the Underwriter. When established on July 28th 2004. this company has basic capital of IDR 8.000.000.000.00. From year to year since it was established. PT Adaro Energy Tbk has an excellent performance. In 2010. the production reaches 42.2 million tons and the sales reaches 2.7 million dollars. An excellent performance company surely has to maintain and always improve its performance. Therefore. a valuation is needed to measure the value of the company and knowing how to enhance the value. Author used three kind of approaches to estimate the value of the company. which are asset-based approach. income approach and market approach. Author will also determine the share value based on the value that had been determine using each approaches that have been told before. Purpose: The research is made to estimate the value of  PT Adaro Energy Tbk and by that. knowing what should be done by the company depend on what shouldbe done by the company depend on what is the value of the company. Authow will use some valuation methods and techniques accordance with the company conditions and structures.Design/methodology/approach: The methods that used in this research paper were asset-based approach. income approach (Discounted Cash Flow). and market approach. Author will use the consolidated financial statements of PT Adaro Energy Tbk from year 2006-2011.Findings: Using those three kinds of approaches. author will find the estimated value. Then. after find the estimated value of the company. the stock value will be found by using the equation which will be used in analysis. The reasearch shows that the value of PT Adaro Energy Tbk is ranged between IDR 43.361.609.266.373.00 to IDR 354.399.618.736.223.00 and the stock value with the current share price IDR 1.460.00 (31 July 2012) is ranged  between IDR 972.91 to IDR 10.378.65. This shows that PT Adaro Energy Tbk has a big potency to enhance its value and PT Adaro Energy Tbk is still a good choice to investors.Research limitations/implications: This research is focuses on determining the estimated value and share value of PT Adaro Energy Tbk. In one of the approaches. author will use the P/E ratio from the public coal mining industries which listed in IDX.Originality/value: This research paper contains about measuring the estimated value and share value of PT Adaro Energy Tbk using three approaches. This valuation is important in order if PT Adaro Energy Tbk wants to sell its assets or wants to do merger and acqusition. It also important for a company to enhance its company value.Keywords: Valuation;asset-based approach;income approach;discounted cash flow; market approachCategory: Finance