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Found 4 Documents
Journal : International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics

Forecasting electricity load demand using hybrid exponential smoothing-artificial neural network model Sulandari, Winita; Subanar, Subanar; Suhartono, Suhartono; Utami, Herni
International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Vol 2, No 3 (2016): November 2016
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (530.21 KB) | DOI: 10.26555/ijain.v2i3.69


Short-term electricity load demand forecast is a vital requirements for power systems. This research considers the combination of exponential smoothing for double seasonal patterns and neural network model. The linear version of Holt-Winter method is extended to accommodate a second seasonal component. In this work, the Fourier with time varying coefficient is presented as a means of seasonal extraction. The methodological contribution of this paper is to demonstrate how these methods can be adapted to model the time series data with multiple seasonal pattern, correlated non stationary error and nonlinearity components together. The proposed hybrid model is started by implementing exponential smoothing state space model to obtain the level, trend, seasonal and irregular components and then use them as inputs of neural network. Forecasts of future values are then can be obtained by using the hybrid model. The forecast performance was characterized by root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. The proposed hybrid model is applied to two real load series that are energy consumption in Bawen substation and in Java-Bali area. Comparing with other existing models, results show that the proposed hybrid model generate the most accurate forecast
Identification of virtual plants using bayesian networks based on parametric L-system Suhartono, Suhartono; Kurniawan, Fachrul; Imran, Bahtiar
International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Vol 4, No 1 (2018): March 2018
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (447.282 KB) | DOI: 10.26555/ijain.v4i1.157


Parametric L-System is a method for modelling virtual plants. Virtual plant modelling consists of components of axiom and production rules for alphabets in parametric L-System. Generally, to get the alphabet in parametric L-System, one would guess the production rules and perform a modification on the axiom. The objective of this study was to build virtual plant that was affected by the environment. The use of Bayesian networks was to extract the information structure of the growth of a plant as affected by the environment. The next step was to use the information to generate axiom and production rules for the alphabets in the parametric L-System. The results of program testing showed that among the five treatments, the combination of organic and inorganic fertilizer was the environmental factor for the experiment. The highest result of 6.41 during evaluation of the virtual plant came from the treatment with combination of high level of organic fertilizer and medium level of inorganic fertilizer. Mean error between real plant and virtual plan was 9.45 %.
Estimating the function of oscillatory components in SSA-based forecasting model Sulandari, Winita; Subanar, Subanar; Suhartono, Suhartono; Utami, Herni; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam
International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Vol 5, No 1 (2019): March 2019
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1676.6 KB) | DOI: 10.26555/ijain.v5i1.312


The study of SSA-based forecasting model is always interesting due to its capability in modeling trend and multiple seasonal time series. The aim of this study is to propose an iterative ordinary least square (OLS) for estimating the oscillatory with time-varying amplitude model that usually found in SSA decomposition. We compare the results with those obtained by nonlinear least square based on Levenberg Marquardt (NLM) method. A simulation study based on the time series data which has a linear amplitude modulated sinusoid component is conducted to investigate the error of estimated parameters of the model obtained by the proposed method. A real data series was also considered for the application example. The results show that in terms of forecasting accuracy, the SSA-based model where the oscillatory components are obtained by iterative OLS is nearly the same with that is obtained by the NLM method.
Hybrid SSA-TSR-ARIMA for water demand forecasting Suhartono, Suhartono; Isnawati, Salafiyah; Salehah, Novi Ajeng; Prastyo, Dedy Dwi; Kuswanto, Heri; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam
International Journal of Advances in Intelligent Informatics Vol 4, No 3 (2018): November 2018
Publisher : Universitas Ahmad Dahlan

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1720.104 KB) | DOI: 10.26555/ijain.v4i3.275


Water supply management effectively becomes challenging due to the human population and their needs have been growing rapidly. The aim of this research is to propose hybrid methods based on Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) decomposition, Time Series Regression (TSR), and Automatic Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), known as hybrid SSA-TSR-ARIMA, for water demand forecasting. Monthly water demand data frequently contain trend and seasonal patterns. In this research, two groups of different hybrid methods were developed and proposed, i.e. hybrid methods for individual SSA components and for aggregate SSA components. TSR was used for modeling aggregate trend component and Automatic ARIMA for modeling aggregate seasonal and noise components separately. Firstly, simulation study was conducted for evaluating the performance of the proposed methods. Then, the best hybrid method was applied to real data sample. The simulation showed that hybrid SSA-TSR-ARIMA for aggregate components yielded more accurate forecast than other hybrid methods. Moreover, the comparison of forecast accuracy in real data also showed that hybrid SSA-TSR-ARIMA for aggregate components could improve the forecast accuracy of ARIMA model and yielded better forecast than other hybrid methods. In general, it could be concluded that the hybrid model tends to give more accurate forecast than the individual methods. Thus, this research in line with the third result of the M3 competition that stated the accuracy of hybrid method outperformed, on average, the individual methods being combined and did very well in comparison to other methods.
Co-Authors A J Endharta A. Haris A. Rusgiyono Abdul Hamid Abdul Haris Abdul Karim Achmad Mauludiyanto Aditia, Dita Selvia Ag Soemantri Agus Setyawan Agus Subagio Agus Suharsono Agus Suwandono Agustinus Soemantri Aiman Farag Mohammed Ali, Aiman Farag Mohammed Ainil Karomah Aisiah Aisiah, Aisiah Aji Winara Akhmad Fathurrohman Albertus Ata Maran Ali Rosidi Alice Ximenis Naben Alif Rahman Dhani Alim, Kusuma Yati Amalia Sakina, Nova Ana Setyowati Andria Prima Ditago Anggraeni, Ika Esti Anggun Marlina Puspitasari, Anggun Marlina Anies Anies Anna Nur Nahari, Anna Nur Apoina Kartini Apryanti, Yohana Putri Ardiani, Hanifah Ari Dwi Kurniawati, Ari Dwi Ari Suwondo Arif Harjanto Arifian Rahman Arimoto, Takafumi Aris Puji Widodo Armini, Ni Kadek Arnelli Arnelli Arono Arono Artikasari, Artikasari Arulita Ika Fibriana Arum Siwiendrayanti Arum, Silfia Sekar Ashanur Jenni, Ashanur Aslim Rasyad Asril Aminullah Astari, Karina Ayu Cintya Paraswati, Ayu Cintya B. Raharjo Bagoes Widjanarko Basuki Basuki Bayu Surarso Beni Lestari, Beni Beta Noranita Boediman, Drajat Brodjol Sutijo BRW. Indriasari, BRW. Budhi Setianto budi manfaat, budi Budi Santosa Budianto, Anwar Budiyono Budiyono Cahya Rosyida, Desta Ayu Castro, Toto Chamdani, Muhammad Christian Lilik Henry, Christian Lilik Corry Wahyuni Hidayat, Corry Wahyuni Cut Nanda Defira, Cut Nanda Cut Yulvizar D. Ispriyanti D. S. Widodo Dana, I Made Gde Meranggi Darmayanti, Tri Darsono Darsono Darwis, Darsef Dasrul Dasrul Dedi Hariyanto, Dedi Dedi Natawijaya Dedy Dwi Prastyo Defi Mustika Sari Destri Susilaningrum Dewi Andriyani Dharminto Dharminto Dhoriva Urwatul Wutsqa Diah Rahayu Wulandari Diah Ratnasari Dian Rahmawati Dias Aji Bantarwati Didik Setiyo Widodo Dinda Rachma Anggiani, Dinda Rachma Diyah Fatmasari Djalal Er Riyanto Djokomoeljanto, Sri Dwi Astuti, Siti Choirul Dwi Endah Kusrini Dwi Kusrianto Putro, Dwi Kusrianto Dwi Marinajati Dwi Pudjonarko Dwi Wastoro Dadiyanto, Dwi Wastoro Dwiatmono Agus Dwiatmono Agus Widodo Dyah, Dyah E. Setiawati Edy Suryadi Eijsvogels, Thijs Eka Sudarsana Eko Adi Sarwoko Eko Eko Sediyono Eko Sediono Eko Sediyono Endang Ambarwati, Endang Endang Pujiastuti, Rr Sri Eni Mahawati Epa Suryanto Erlin Fitria Dewi, Erlin Fitria Erna Setiawati, Erna Esty Kurniasih, Esty Esty Yunita Sari, Esty Etik Susanti, Etik Eva Laylatus F. Ariyanto Fachrul Kurniawan Falah, Nurul Fanoeel Thamrin Fany Aditya Rahman Farida Ariany Farikhin Farikhin Faturohman, Akhmad Fauzan Masykur Fauziah, Syifa Fernando, Okta Fidiyatun Fidiyatun Gamantyo Hendrantoro Gasela, Fitria Gautama, Mada Gumono Gumono, Gumono Gunawan Gunawan H. Sutanto Hajar, Muhammad Abduh Ibnu Hanafi Kamarz Hanan Lanang Dangiran, Hanan Lanang Handini, Yuslinda Dwi Hardhono Susanto Hari Ismanto Haryono Haryono Helmi Arif Wibawa Helmie Arif Wibawa Hendra Budi Sungkawa, Hendra Budi Henry Setyawan, Henry Heri Kuswanto Heri Nugroho Herni Utami Hertanto Wahyu Subagio Heru Tjahjana Hiasa, Fina Hidayat, Syarief Thaufik I Made Widagda, I Made I. Marhaendrajaya Ida Ariyanti, Ida Ika Nur Jannah, Ika Nur Ikawati, Kartika Ike Ani Windiastuti Ilafi Andalita Ilmiyah, Nita Imam Djamaluddin Mashoedi Imam Husni Al Amin Imam Suyanto Imelsa Ika Wulandari, Imelsa Ika Imran, Bahtiar Iqbalsyah, T.M. Irma Dewiyanti Iskandar, Arif Ismaini Ismaini Isnawati, Salafiyah Izza Hananingtyas J. E. Suseno James Khristian Imbiri Jamilah Jamilah Jatmiko Endro Suseno JC. Susanto Joharman Joharman Juliana, Cut Juwana, Ferditia Karna Kadek Kardya Novi Diani Kamilah Budhi Kamilah Budhi R, Kamilah Budhi Karimizzah, Diyani Ayu Kartika Chrysti Suryandari Kartika Imam Santoso, Kartika KARTINI ERIANI Karyadi, Hari Khoirul Huda Khoirunnisa, Anis Khotimah, Khusnul Kiki Ferawati Kintan Arifa Shafirin, Kintan Arifa Kiswanto Kiswanto Komsiyah, Komsiyah Kurniawati, Yasinta Dian Kushartantya Kushartantya Kusmiyati Tjahjono Kuswandari, Diah Kuswaningrum, Okta Kusyogo Cahyo Laila Kamilla Laila, Ratih Lee, Muhammad Hisyam Lenni Arta F.S. Sinaga, Lenni Arta F.S. Lestari, Susanti Lily Gunawan Lokaprasida, Prameshi Lopulalan Octovianus, Lopulalan Lukmono, Djoko Tri Hadi M. Arifin M. Haris Qamaruzzaman M. Izzati M. Nur M. Zen Rahfiludin Mahalul Azam Mardiyono Mardiyono Maria Mexitalia Maries Lailatul Izza Martha Irene Kartasurya Martini Martini Marwanto, Andriana Masfufatun Juni, Masfufatun Mateus Sakundarno Adi, Mateus Sakundarno Mateus Sakundarno, Mateus Maulidiyah Salim Mauridhi Hery P Mega Silfiani Melawati, Cyntia Meliana Sari, Meliana Mexitalia Setiawati Mifbakhuddin Mifbakhuddin, Mifbakhuddin Miftahul Munir, Miftahul Mochammad Abdul Mukid, Mochammad Abdul Mochammad Arbi Hadiyat Mohammad Sulchan Mohammad Zen Rahfiludin Monitasari, Diah Muchlis Achsan Udji Sofro Muchtar Mawardi Mufidatul Khasanah, Mufidatul Muhammad Nur MUHAMMAD RIZAL Muntoha Muntoha murifal, Badar Murni, Ni Nengah Arini Musbir Musbir Muslih Muslih Mustafid Mustafid Ngadiyono Ngadiyono, Ngadiyono Ni Luh Sakinah Nuraini, Ni Luh Sakinah Ni Made Dwi Ermayanthi Niki Astorina Yunita Dewanti, Niki Astorina Yunita Nikie Astorina Yunita Dewanti Nimah, Anis Nikmatun Nindita Sekar Dini Novi Hidayati Novia Rina Dewi Novianti, P.W. Nugroho Nugroho Nur Endah Wahyuningsih Nur Endah Wahyuningsih Nur Fadhilah Nur Faizah Nur Khafidhoh, Nur Nurdin Bahtiar Nurhalimah, Septina Restu Nurjazuli Nurjazuli Nurjazuli Nurjazulil, Nurjazuli Nyoman Suci Widyastiti Ofianto Ofianto, Ofianto Oktivianis Kusumaningrum Olha Musa, Olha Onny Setiani Palupi, Bening Sri Pamuji, Siti Erniyati Berkah Pandiangan, Paken Paristiowati, Maria Parmin, J. Pasiyan Rahmatullah Patma, Rosi Prakoso, Aryo Pramono Dwi Utomo Pramukarso, Dodik Tugasworo Prihati Prihati Priyo Sidik Sasongko Priyono Priyono Pujiono Pujiono Purhadi Purhadi Purnomo Sidhi Purwadi, Agus Joko Puspita Kartikasari Puspita, Intan Dewi Putri Setyo Wulandari, Putri Setyo R. Hariyati R. Hastuti Rachmat Gernowo Ramadhani, Achmad Rani Novianis Rizky Saputri, Rani Novianis Rizky Rara Marisdayana, Rara Rasipin Rasipin Ratna Dian Kurniawati, Ratna Dian Ratna Hidayah, Ratna Ratna Pratiwi Ratnasari Kusumawati Rebecha Prananta, Rebecha Renny Elfira Wulansari Rianasari Rianasari, Rianasari Rifatul Masrikhiyah, Rifatul Rika Susanti Rio Kurniawan Ririn Sulpiani Risa Nursanty Rismawati Rismawati Riyandika Andhi Saputra Riyaningsih Riyaningsih Rofi'i, Muhamad Rokhmaniyah Rokhmaniyah, Rokhmaniyah Ronny Ronny Rosnizar, Rosnizar Roziana Roziana, Roziana RRJ. Sri Djokomoeljanto Rudi Anshari, Rudi Rudi Pangarsaning Utami Rusiyati Rusiyati Ryana Ayu Setia Kurniasari S. Tana sabil sabil, sabil Saepudin, malik Safira Fatichaturrachma, Safira Safitri, Nurul Febi Safriansyah Safriansyah Sah, Suciati Salehah, Novi Ajeng Salimi, Moh Salimi, Moh Samekto, Marek Samiyati, Menik Samsul N Hidayat, Samsul N Samuel Samuel Sandhi, Dwi Pungky Ari Sandra, Tuti Santi Puteri Rahayu Santoso, Yusuf Dwi Sapruddin Sapruddin Sari, Betania Ratna Sari, Nisa Sarwendah Dewi Astuti, Sarwendah Dewi Satriyo Adhy Selamat Budijitno Setiawan Setiawan Shofa Chasani Sistya Rosi Diaprina Siti Fatimah Siti Fatimah Muis Siti Maghfirotul Ulyah Slamet Budiono Slamet Handoko Slamet Handoko Handoko Slamet Widodo Soeharyo Hadisaputro Sofia Sofia, Sofia Sofro, Muchlis AU Sofyan Cholid, Sofyan Sri Handayani Sri Rahayu Sri Ratna Rahayu, Sri Ratna Sri Wahjuni Sri Wahyuni Sri Wahyuningsih Sriharyani, Leni Subagio, Hertanto W. Subanar Subanar Suci Rahmadani Sucipta Sucipta Sudarno Sudarno Sudirman Sudirman Sugeng Purnomo Sugito Sugito Suharyo Hadisaputro Suhermi, Novri Sukro, Sukro Sulistiawati Sulistiawati SULISTIYANI SULISTIYANI Sumarno Sumarno Suparno Suparno Supriyana Supriyana, Supriyana Suratman Suratman Suripto Suripto Suryati Kumorowulan Susilowati, Devi Ayu Sutardi Sutardi Suwito Suwito Syaiful Hadi T. Windarti Tati Tati Tatiek Dyah Wardani, Tatiek Dyah Thamrin, Jumianti Lestari Thamrin, Jumianti Lestari Theresia Patty, Fara Imelda Theresia Ristadeli Titi Suherni Titiek Praptini, Titiek Tjahjono Kuntjoro Toni Prahasto Tri Joko Tri Murti Tri Saptuti Susiani, Tri Saptuti Trismianto Asmo Sutrisno Sutrisno Triwid Syafarotun Najah, Triwid Syafarotun Ucu Cahyana, Ucu Udi Harmoko Udin Bahrudin, Udin Ulandari, Githa Ulfa Nurullita Umi Athiyah, Umi Umrah, Siti Undang, Undang Vinny Merlinda Hardiana Vita Ratnasari W. H. Rahmanto W. Rahmanto Wahono, Puji Wahyu Utami, Wahyu Wibowo, Yermia Nugroho Agung widowati widowati Wijaya, Norra Hendarni Wijdani Anindya Hadi Windarningsih, Farida Windi Rayina Rosa Winita Sulandari Wiwid Widiyatni, Wiwid Wiwit Artika Yadanur Alim Yanti, Nafri Yuliani, Hamda Yulianto, Mochamad Rizal yundri, yundri Yuniawatika Yuniawatika, Yuniawatika Yunita Dewanti, Nikie Astorina Yusniar Hanani D., Yusniar Yusniar Hanani Darundiati Z. Muhlisin