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IMPOR BERAS DAN IMPLIKASI KEBIJAKAN PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI BERAS DI INDONESIA Noviar, Helmi
JURNAL EKOMBIS Vol 4 No 1 (2018) April
Publisher : Universitas Teuku Umar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (224.607 KB) | DOI: 10.35308/ekombis.v4i1.1333

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to assess the implications of rice imports on the welfareof farmers and several factors that cause rice imports in Indonesia. The method usedis a collection of data generated from various publications / publishing from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics, and formerly comparing the various results that resulted in journal publications. The results of analysis in this paper, based onrecent data, find the production gap between production and consumption which driven by the rate of consumption growth is not corresponding by the rate of growthof production. Thus, to carry out this issue, the government require import rice policyin 2014.This implies a decline in the purchasing power of farmers (NTP) and farmerproduction (NTUP) which in the next year increase rice production (2015) but it cannot significantly boost both competitiveness indicators. Therefore, in the short run, the imposition of rice commodities must be carefully calculated using the right principles and in the long term the increase of national rice production must be doneby improving facilities and infrastructure in the agricultural sector, and access to capital so as to create professional cooperation as rice producer in indonesia.Keywords: rice importation, production-consumption gap, NTP/NTUP.
Analisis Kecukupan Dan Ketersediaan Beras Di Indonesia (1975-2009) Noviar, Helmi
PASAI Vol 7, No 1 (2013)
Publisher : Universitas Malikussaleh

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Abstract

This article examines rice economy in Indonesia during 1975-2009, in particular describing sufficient and stock rice stipulation in that period. As a strategic commodity, rice to be crucial element of strategic issues of food security in Indonesia, mainly post-economic crisis period (1997-2009). This paper study shows that during at that time from beginning period in 1975 which Indonesia Government focus on developing agriculture sector for self-sufficient target, in particular rice production target and attainning in 1984. Following that period, domestic rice production fluctuated, mainly  tends to decreased steadily, in addition to, obtaining sufficient and stock domestic rice, Indonesia rice importation progresively increase, it become significant in post-economic crisis during 2001-2009. The critical condition in rice domestic stock thus 3,9% of rice domestic production was imported to support domestic supply. Hence, rice average production growth should be greater than average consumption growth with the assumption that the constant growth of Indonesian population. One common policy recommendation is to aim for rice production stabilization from supporting input production such as maintanance agricultural infrastructure regularly and also expand research and technology organic-input to get sustainable rice domestic production in the long-run, in addition to, strict land agricultural policy with respect to condensing land conversion as soon as possible should be accomodated as well.
EKSPEKTASI RASIONAL: PAST, PRESENT AND FUTURE Noviar, Helmi
Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi Darussalam Vol 2, No 1 (2016): Jurnal Perspektif Ekonomi Darussalam
Publisher : FEB Universitas Syiah Kuala

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24815/jped.v2i1.6649

Abstract

This article discusses the rational expectations theory in the perspective of the appearance process and its contribution to economic thought in terms of the science and its application on the economy. The methodology in writing this paper is through literature review, generally taken from journal articles which examine from two viewpoints: from economists who initiated and supported the concept of this theory and those who opposed it. Furthermore, it also discuss about its application, particularly in terms of future economic studies. As part of the New Classical Economics, the theory pioneered by Robert E. Lucas, Jr. along with Thomas J. Sargent has provided a great contribution of empirical and multifaceted approaches, which provides a compilation of the results of the study and generalization theory by numerous macroeconomist and econometrician in Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice (1981), it quite influential on level of academic and applied economics. In other words, the rational expectation revolution is one of the important components in modern economic theory, the New Classical Economics and New Keynesian Economics.Artikel ini membahas teori ekspektasi rasional dalam perspektif proses munculnya teori ini dan kontribusinya terhadap paham pemikiran ekonomi baik dari sisi ilmu pengetahuan maupun aplikasinya dalam suatu perekonomian. Metodologi penulisan artikel ini melalui review literatur dari sumber jurnal dengan memisahkan dua sudut pandang terhadap teori rasional ekspektasi: dari sisi ekonom yang menggagas dan mendukung konsep teori ini dan yang bertentangan. Selanjutnya, dalam artikel ini juga membahas aplikasi teori ini dalam studi-studi ekonomi di masa mendatang. Sebagai bagian dari paham ekonomi klasik baru, teori yang diinisiasi oleh Robert E. Lucas, Jr. bersamaThomas J. Sargent melahirkan karya kumpulan artikel dari beberapa ahli ekonomi makro dan ekonometrika dalam Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice (1981) yang cukup berpengaruh pada tataran akademis dan aplikasi ilmu ekonomi. Dengan perkataan lain, revolusi ekspektasi rasional, merupakan salah satu komponen penting dalam teori ekonomi modern seperti halnya paham Ekonomi Keynesian baru dan Ekonomi klasik baru.
Permintaan Impor (Import Demand) Beras di Indonesia: Pendekatan Analisis Times-Series – Vector Error Correction Model Noviar, Helmi; Juliansyah, Rollis
JURNAL EKOMBIS Vol 5, No 2 (2019) November
Publisher : Universitas Teuku Umar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (534.818 KB) | DOI: 10.35308/ekombis.v5i2.1366

Abstract

This article aims to examine some of the components that affect rice imports in Indonesia in the short and long term through a time-series analysis method approach using the Vector Error Correction model as an approach of estimating commodity specific import demand models. Data series in the period 1975-2015 of variable domestic prices, international rice prices, exchange rates and GDP. Estimation results show only a one-way causality relationship between relative prices, exchange rates and income. While the long-term relationship is not found in this import demand model. Therefore, implications in further research especially in modeling time-series are the main recommendations in this article. Keyword: vector error correction, Import Demand,
PERANG PARADIGMA: DAPATKAH MENDAMAIKAN METODOLOGI PENDEKATANKUANTITATIF DAN KUALITATIF Noviar, Helmi; Jayanti, Ery; Badli, Saiful
JURNAL EKOMBIS Vol 5, No 1 (2019) April
Publisher : Universitas Teuku Umar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (338.25 KB) | DOI: 10.35308/ekombis.v5i1.1361

Abstract

The aim of this article is to describe how the paradigm qualitative and quantitative occur and its evolution concisely and the distinction between these two paradigm in the early days and particularly in the mid 1950?s which cause the paradigm wars on methodology and also epistemology point of view in the social science and economics dicipline. Both qualitative and quantitative significantly contribute in the social science overall. In addition to, the Nobel Prize winner in 1974Gunnar Myrdal inAsian Drama: An Inquiry Into the Poverty of Nations (1957) by using sociological frameworkand Garry S. Becker, winner of the 1992 economic Nobel in his doctoral dissertation Discrimination in the Market Place (1955) which included elements of crime, social conflicts (racial discrimination), and institutional economics in examining economic problems. The dichotomy of the qualitative and quantitative approaches is no longer relevant, because both have their advantages and disadvantages, in the qualitative approach the process of getting realistic data is quite good and comprehensive while in the quantitative approach provides a particularpicture or pictures of reality. Therefore, mixed method that can cover each other's shortcomings. Nevertheless, the process of obtaining truth is not just a methodological paradigm, but there is something called epistemological process so that the truth that is revealed as a science is describing an objective reality.Keywords: mixed method, qualitative and quantitative, triangulation
ANALISIS IMPOR BERAS DAN KESEIMBANGAN PASAR BERAS INDONESIA Noviar, Helmi; Affandi, Affandi
JURNAL EKOMBIS Vol 5, No 2 (2019) November
Publisher : Universitas Teuku Umar

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (236.351 KB) | DOI: 10.35308/ekombis.v5i2.1364

Abstract

The study aims to find and test simultaneous equation models in an effort to obtain the right model to estimate fit in the analysis of the needs of a national rice reserve. By using the data of the Central Board of Statistics of various editions and data of the Food Agricultural Organization all data needs of variables can be fulfilled.The method of estimation is using Two stage Ordinary Least Square (TSLS). Taking into consideration the condition of the variables, this model is identified overidentified, using some variable lag. The estimated results show some parameters quite significant, there are still some variables that are not statistically significant. Therefore, it is necessary pedekatan more precise model specifications, and other estimation methods, such as the Seemingly Unrelated Regression (SUR) technique. Keywords: Simultaneous Model, partial adjusment, TSLS