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Journal : Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan

DAMPAK PELAKSANAAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL INDONESIA Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Permata, Meily Ika; Ari Wibowo, Wahyu
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 1 (2010): JULY 2010
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v13i1.254

Abstract

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.JEL Classification: C67, F14, R12Keywords: ACFTA, trade, export, GTAP, Revealed Comparative Advantage, CGE.
PENGARUH DINAMIKA PENAWARAN DAN PERMINTAAN VALAS Sugeng, Sugeng; Nugroho, M. Noor; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Yanfitri, Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010): JANUARY 2010
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v12i3.245

Abstract

This study examines the influence of forex demand and supply interaction on Rupiah's exchange rate. Estimation results show that the movement of rupiah is influenced by the forex supply and demand, where the foreign players are dominating. Furthermore, the demand and supply of foreign exchange is asymmetric.This paper also shows the impact of exchange rate movements on output is only in the short term with a more significant influence to the import, while the depreciation of Rupiah has a larger impact than its appreciation.Keywords:Foreign exchange, inflation, exchange rate.JEL Classification: E31, F31
APAKAH PERKEMBANGAN FINANSIAL MEREDAM ATAU MEMPERBESAR DAMPAK SUATU KEJUTAN? Permata, Meily Ika; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Ari, Hidayah Dhini
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 14 No 2 (2011): OCTOBER 2011
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v14i2.459

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of financial development on economic output in Indonesia. Using vector autoregressive method, the results confirm the positive impact of financial development on output growth. The interaction between the financial development and the shock either in financial or real sector shows that the financial development has a positive role to dampen the negative impact of the shock on the output growth, while strengthen the positive one. Another variable on the model, which significantly affect the output growth are excess money, term of trade, and the price. Compare to these variables, the marginal effect of financial development on output is smaller. JEL Classification : E44, O16Keywords : Financial development, shock, output volatility, VAR
The Regional Impact Transmission via International Trade: An ASIAN-IO Approach Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Winarno, Tri; Viva, Melva; Yanfitri, Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 4 (2014): APRIL 2014
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v16i4.449

Abstract

Global financial crisis which began in the US in the latter part of 2008 hit a lot of countries in both trade and finance. In trade aspect, the crisis spread widely; in Indonesia, the total export value in 2009 dropped to 14,3%. Therefore, the economy of China, tightly linked with Asian countries including Indonesia, which rapidly rose before the crisis but slowed after it should be monitored as this condition, could indirectly hold down Indonesia’s GDP. Applying RAS method to update Asian IO data, this research has attempted to describe the trade structure of Asian countries in 2010. Also, it implemented a simulation of the impact of US and China’s GDP decline and US exports on Indonesia’s GDP, both at aggregate and sector levels. The result of the mapping shows that Indonesia is getting more dependent on China. Generally, the link between Indonesia’s exported products and global production chain is weak. Indonesia’s export commodities which are mostly of intermediate goods have low contribution towards value added. Moreover, the result of the simulation shows that 1% decrease in China’s GDP has greater impact on Indonesia’s GDP (0,14%) than that of the US (0,05%) and EU (0,07%) though with similar point.  Keyword: Trade Interactions, Input Output ModelJEL Classification : F16, R15
THE IMPACT OF ACFTA IMPLEMENTATION ON INTERNATIONAL TRADE OF INDONESIA Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Permata, Meily Ika; Wibowo, Wahyu Ari
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 1 (2010): JULY 2010
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v13i1.384

Abstract

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia»s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.JEL Classification: C67, F14, R12Keywords: ACFTA, trade, export, GTAP, Revealed Comparative Advantage, CGE.
TRANSMISI DAMPAK MELALUI JARINGAN PERDAGANGAN: PENDEKATAN ASIAN-IO Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Winarno, Tri; Grace, Melva Viva; Fitri, Yan
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 4 (2014): APRIL 2014
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v16i4.23

Abstract

Global financial crisis which began in the US in the latter part of 2008 hit a lot of countries in both trade and finance. In trade aspect, the crisis spread widely; in Indonesia, the total export value in 2009 dropped to 14,3%. Therefore, the economy of China, tightly linked with Asian countries including Indonesia, which rapidly rose before the crisis but slowed after it should be monitored as this condition, could indirectly hold down Indonesia’s GDP. Applying RAS method to update Asian IO data, this research has attempted to describe the trade structure of Asian countries in 2010. Also, it implemented a simulation of the impact of US and China’s GDP decline and US exports on Indonesia’s GDP, both at aggregate and sector levels. The result of the mapping shows that Indonesia is getting more dependent on China. Generally, the link between Indonesia’s exported products and global production chain is weak. Indonesia’s export commodities which are mostly of intermediate goods have low contribution towards value added. Moreover, the result of the simulation shows that 1% decrease in China’s GDP has greater impact on Indonesia’s GDP (0,14%) than that of the US (0,05%) and EU (0,07%) though with similar point.  Keyword: Trade Interactions, Input Output Model JEL Classification : F16, R15
DAMPAK PEMBALIKAN MODAL DAN THRESHOLD DEFISIT NERACA BERJALAN TERHADAP NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH Nugroho, M. Noor; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Winarno, Tri; Permata, Meily Ika
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 3 (2014): JANUARY 2014
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v16i3.22

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months.  Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold. JEL Classification: F31, F32
The Impact of Capital Reversal and the Threshold of Current Account Deficit on Rupiah Nugroho, M. Noor; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Winarno, Tri; Permata, Meily Ika
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 3 (2014): JANUARY 2014
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v16i3.445

Abstract

This paper studies the effects of foreign capital flows toward the exchange rate of rupiah both in total and across types of capital investment. This paper also analyzes the thresholds of current account deficit which significantly affect the rate of Rupiah. The estimation shows the capital outflow affect the rate of Rupiah to depreciate and is larger than the appreciation pressure of capital inflow (except when invested in Certificate of Bank Indonesia, SBI). Furthermore, the rate of Rupiah is more sensitive on government bond (SUN) than stock or SBI. The yield of this government bond largely affects the probability of the capital reversal. Related to the current account, the estimation shows that after exceeds the threshold of USD980 million monthly deficit or about 2% of GDP, the exchange rate will depreciate by 12.7% (m-o-m) with the lag effect of 4 months.  Keywords: Capital flows, exchange rate, current account deficit, threshold.JEL Classification: F31, F32
DOES FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT ABSORB OR AMPLIFY THE SHOCK? Permata, Meily Ika; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Ari, Hidayah Dhini
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 14 No 2 (2011): OCTOBER 2011
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v14i2.81

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of financial development on economic output in Indonesia. Using vector autoregressive method, the results confirm the positive impact of financial development on output growth. The interaction between the financial development and the shock either in financial or real sector shows that the financial development has a positive role to dampen the negative impact of the shock on the output growth, while strengthen the positive one. Another variable on the model, which significantly affect the output growth are excess money, term of trade, and the price. Compare to these variables, the marginal effect of financial development on output is smaller.JEL Classification : E44, O16Keywords : Financial development, shock, output volatility, VAR
EFFECTS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE SUPPLY AND DEMAND DYNAMICS TO RUPIAH EXCHANGE RATE AND ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE Sugeng, Sugeng; Nugroho, M. Noor; Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Yanfitri, Yanfitri
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 12 No 3 (2010): JANUARY 2010
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v12i3.374

Abstract

This study examines the influence of forex demand and supply interaction on Rupiah's exchange rate. Estimation results show that the movement of rupiah is influenced by the forex supply and demand, where the foreign players are dominating. Furthermore, the demand and supply of foreign exchange is asymmetric.This paper also shows the impact of exchange rate movements on output is only in the short term with a more significant influence to the import, while the depreciation of Rupiah has a larger impact than its appreciation.Keywords:Foreign exchange, inflation, exchange rate.JEL Classification: E31, F31
Co-Authors A.N, Muhammad Dienda Abdul Rahim Abdullah Abdullah Abdullah, Ibrahim Achmad Basuki Achmad Djunaidi Afriantoni Afriantoni Agam, Surya Ahri, Reza Aril Akib, Muhaiminah Akmal, Nurul Akmal, Nurul Al Mawardi Alfah, Rina Alisyahbana, Takdir Almukarramah, Almukarramah AM, Junadi Amalia, Ema Amiruddin Amiruddin Andi Alimuddin Unde, Andi Alimuddin Angkoro, Dadal Arfan Hasan Ari Wibowo, Wahyu Ari, Hidayah Dhini Arifin Ahmad, Arifin Arya Wijaya, Arya Asmawi, Moch. Astharini, Dwi Auliya Rahman Awang, Mohd Isha Azwardi Azwardi Azwir Azwir Baihaqi Baihaqi Bedriati Ibrahim bt Yusoff, Nurahimah Bunyamin, Bachrum Butarbutar, Tunggul Darmayanti, N .W. S. Dewati, Wahyu Djufri Djufri Don, Yahya Dwi Haryadi Eko Sakti Pramukantoro, Eko Sakti Enny Kusumastuti, Enny Fadhli, Rudi Filissa Thilfani Haryono, Filissa Thilfani Fitri Oviyanti Fitri Sukmawati, Fitri Fitri, Rahma Si Fitri, Yan Gani, Fauzi Abdul Grace, Melva Viva Gunawan Gunawan Haeruddin Haeruddin Hafid, Iss Savitri Hanifah, Erika sandra nor Harun, Darwin Hasni Hasni Helmy Alian Heriyanti Heriyanti, Heriyanti herlina, andika Herman Herman Husain, Balqis Ika Sulianti Ilham Maulana Imam Santoso INDRA HERMAWAN Intan, Syarifah Keumala Irwansyah, Abdullah Irwansyah, Abdullah Iskandar Iskandar Ismail Suardi Wekke Iswandi Idris Iwan Tanjung Sutarna, Iwan Tanjung Kamaluddin Kamaluddin Karnilawati Karnilawati Kassaming, Kassaming Khairulyadi, Khairulyadi Khosiah Khosiah, Khosiah Kosim Kosim Kristi Agust, Kristi Kusprapti, Almaidah Sri lasmi, Sulasmi Linda Sekar Utami, Linda Sekar Listiani Listiani M Hasbi Mail, Abdul Malik, Rahmania Mardjoko Idris, Mardjoko Marwan Marwan Marwan,, Marwan, Mas'ad, Mas'ad Mas,ad, Mas,ad Masad, Masad Muhaimin Ramdja, Muhaimin Muhajirin Muhajirin Muhammad Baiquni Muhammad Farid Muhammad Reza Muhammad Ridha Muhammad Syahrul Kahar, Muhammad Syahrul Muttaqien, Zedi Nanang Wahyudin Nasrullah Nasrullah Nasution, Zainuddin Nova M, Try Viananda Novia, Vino Rika Nugroho, M. Noor Nurdan, Nurdan Nurlina Nurlina Pabalik, Dg Patmawati Patmawati, Patmawati Permata, Meily Ika Pristianto, Hendrik Rahman, Mujibul Rahmatia, Suci Ramadzan, Isfan Razali Razali Regen, Rona Ridhwan, M Rusdi Nur Rusdi, Achmad RUSIRAWAN, DANI S, Abd Hakim Said Hasan Saini, Makmur Saleh, Anis Saleh, Firman Saleh, Masagus Irsan Samijayani, Octarina Nur Saputra, Muammar Saragih, Yuliarman Saripin, Saripin Sattar Sattar, Sattar Sawaludin, Sawaludin Septiyani, Vita Nur Setiadi Setiadi Sipayung, Maurit Sri Rejeki Su Ritohardoyo Subrianto, A. Sufardi Sufardi Sufriadi Sufriadi, Sufriadi Sugeng Sugeng Sukmawati Sukmawati Sulaiman, Iman susi yanti Syah, Sri Rahayu Syah Rahayu Syahrinudin, Syahrinudin Syahyadi, Rizal Syaifuddin Syaifuddin Taslim Taslim Tastin Tastin, Tastin Teguh Prakoso Tri Winarno Tugiman Tugiman Viva, Melva Wahjuni Hartati Wibowo, Wahyu Ari Winarto, Rahman Yanfitri, Yanfitri Yuniar Yuniar Yusri Yusuf