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DAMPAK KERJASAMA MULTILATERAL TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN PRODUK PERTANIAN Hakim, Dedi Budiman
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol 2, No 2 (2005): Vol. 2 No. 2 Oktober 2005
Publisher : Graduate Program of Management and Business Bogor Agricultural University

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Abstract

Multilateral trade agreement under the auspice of the GATT/WTO is expected to change the nation’s competitiveness in the global economy. In the context of the agricultural agreement, there are three mayor changing policies to be committed by the WTO members: (a) market access, (b) export subsidies and (c) domestic support. Likewise, ASEAN regional agreement (AFTA) will reduce the relative price of international prices to the domestic prices and the exploitation of the comparative advantage.  The questions to be answered is whether such multilateral agreements affect agricultural trade in the region.  A recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) and the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) database were used to assess such impacts. Two important scenarios were then considered: APEC and AFTA scenarios.  The results indicate that as import tariff levels are completely removed, the demand for imported goods would certainly be increased.  This is because domestic consumers (private consumers and industries) would face decreasing domestic prices.  However, the size of import changes depends on the initial tariff rates.  The higher the initial intra-regional tariffs, and the larger the tariff cuts, the higher the gains from the trade creation.  Under the AFTA trade liberalisation, rice output in the ASEAN member countries with the exception of Thailand is projected to shrink. The AFTA tariff reduction would cause an increase in exports in most ASEAN economic sectors.  Focusing on the export changes in the agricultural sectors, it is reported that the cereal and processed milk sectors are predicted to have noticeable increases in their exports. However, since trade liberalisation would have adverse effects on the uncompetitive producing sectors, adjustment assistance is highly recommended in order to compensate for any losses; for instance, reduced farm incomes.
PENGARUH MISALIGNMENT NILAI TUKAR TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN SAFEGUARDS DI ASEAN-5 Vindayani, Dila; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Asmara, Alla
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 18 No 1 (2015): JULY 2015
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (441.324 KB) | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v18i1.517

Abstract

The purposes of this study are to analyze the occurence of exchange rate misalignment and its effect on non-tariff policy in ASEAN-5. We use Panel Dynamic OLS to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate, while for determining the opportunities of the Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs) such as safeguards measures;we use Conditional Fixed-Effects Logistic Regression. The results shows that the magnitude of exchange rate misalignment tends to be large when specific country has a domestic turmoil. In addition, undervalued currrency of exporting country will increase the chances of safeguards measures enforcement from partner countries.
ANALISIS ALIRAN INVESTASI DAN PERDAGANGAN PARIWISATA INDONESIA Singagerda, Faurani I Santi; Oktaviani, Rina; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Kustiari, Reni
Bina Ekonomi Vol 17, No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Bina Ekonomi

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Abstract

Tourism is one of the most significant contributors to the construction sector in Indonesia, with the contribution around 13.9 percent of the total GDP in 2012. In connection with the governments efforts in improving the contribution of tourism in an effort to boost economic growth while improving the welfare of society, then the increase in tourism investment as focus in the development program, the goal for the activities can provide added value as well as lead to increased production that will be produced. If it is known that the average investment for the tourism sector is Rp. 2.73 billion during the period 2006-2012. This figure also shows that the contribution of tourism investment to total investment amounted to only 6 percent (Kemenpraf, 2012), in other words, an investment in the tourism sector has not been able to provide optimal contribution to the national economy development. Based on the fact that some of the problems arising from the governments efforts to boost trade and investment in the tourism sector continues to be done. The determinant factors of the amount of investment and trade from the Indonesian tourism and other countries to be considered and used as the basis of decision-making reference. Similarly, the amount of trade and investment flows to and from outside the State, are also worthy of consideration. To answer the problems, we use the gravity model as methodology and construvt the model of investment and trade of flows which consists of 5 models: the model of the flow of Indonesian tourism investment, exports of goods and services models Indonesian tourism, imports of goods and services model of tourism in Indonesia, Indonesian tourism demand flow model, and the model Indonesian tourism supply. Based on the results of the analysis using the five models were obtained magnitude of investment inflows to Indonesia influenced by the population of the country of origin of tourists and mileage of the country of origin of foreign tourists to Indonesia, where the influence of explanatory variables endogenous variables as a whole is at 0:42 at a significance level of 95 percent. The magnitude of the flow of goods and services exports of Indonesian tourism is affected by the distance variable, price of Indonesian tourism in the country of origin of tourists, exchange rate against foreign currencies origin of tourists, population, tourism and exports of the previous year are variables that significantly affect the confidence level of 95 percent, the magnitude of the effect was 92.7 percent and this shows considerable influence. In the model the flow of goods and services for Indonesian tourism, we use a variable distance, Indonesian GDP, the exchange rate, the price of Indonesian tourism in the countries of origin of tourists and imports of goods and services in the Indonesian tourism previously an influential variable significantly (at 90 percent confidence level), and in general of the statistical results obtained by the relationship between the value of imports of goods and services to the Indonesian tourism is the independent variable by 96 percent. In the model flow of Indonesian tourism demand, the estimation results indicate that the tourism demand variable by independent variables Indonesian GDP, GDP of the country of origin of tourists, tourism for Indonesia, Tourism for the competing countries of ASEAN countries, and tourism consumption by foreign tourists in Indonesia as significant variables in the real level of 0:05 with the magnitude of the effect is at 93.2 percent. Statistically, the result also define there is relationship between magnitude supply of Indonesian tourism deals with variable-GDP Indonesia, Indonesian tourism price, exchange rate, domestic consumption, and consumption in other countries as variables significant (at significance level 0.05) effect on variable deals with the influence of Indonesian tourism amounted to 95.6 percent and the remaining 4.4 percent are influenced by other factors outside of the study such as inflation, interest rates, and investment tourism.
Tourism Investment, Supply and Demand in Indonesia: Impact and Factor Analysis Santi, Faurani; Oktaviani, Rina; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Kustiari, Reni
International Conference On Law, Business and Governance (ICon-LBG) Vol 1 (2013): 1st ICon-LBG
Publisher : UBL

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Abstract

Tourism is one of the most significant contributors to the Indonesia growth of economy, based on datafrom the Indonesia Central Bureau of Statistics in 2012, the share of national tourism to GDP is 13.9percent and of course the contribution of the sector to be helpful for the growth of the national economy,through foreign exchange earnings as revenue from tourist consumption. Besides that, it has provided amultiplier effect to other sectors which related to the sectors. Therefore, an improving of the contributionis a one of government’s effort to boost economic growth and increasing the welfare, thus the increasingof tourism investment and trade will be focus in the tourism development program. Meanwhile, theIndonesia Coordinating Board (BKPM) stated the average national investment for the tourism sector isRp. 2.73 billion or 6 percent from total investment during 2006-2012, in other words an investment intourism sector has not been able to provide optimal contribution to the national economy developmentconsidering to its potential.The purpose of this study was to analyze the determinants of investment, demand and supply ofIndonesian tourism sector. Regarding to answer the problems, this research used series data from 1990 –2012 periods, by using simultaneous model (2SLS) the model analyzed impact of investment, andinternational trade of Indonesia tourism sector to the national economic growth. Based on the Two StagesLeast Squares method on simultaneous model, the results of the analysis gives some conclusions including: (1)tourism arrivals, tourism expenditure, investment, consumption price index, total consumption, governmentspending, export and import tourism affected the national tourism demand, (2) Current investment andinvestment on previous year, total consumption on previous year, and travel warning have positive impact tonational tourism supply, (3) GDP was the most influenced variable beside Indonesia tourism price andneighbor countries’ tourism price as competitors of Indonesia tourism. Finally, the simulations showed thefiscal and monetary policy impact to the national economic tourismsector.
STRATEGI PENINGKATAN PENERIMAAN PENDAPATAN PAJAK REKLAME DIKABUPATEN BOGOR Sulviane, Indah Ayu; Harianto, Harianto; Hakim, Dedi Budiman
Jurnal Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah Vol 6, No 1 (2014)
Publisher : Program Studi Manajemen Pembangunan Daerah. Fakultas Ekonomi dan Manajemen. IPB

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (362.429 KB) | DOI: 10.29244/jurnal mpd.6.1.%p

Abstract

Implementation for fiscal decentralitation, local government that required excavation and development of the area and potential revenue sources to increase regional revenue.The objective of this research is to analyze the factors that influence the potential of advertisement tax revenue, reviewing management organization of advertisement tax is implemented, analyzed the taxpayer perceptions of the advertisement tax and revenue enhancement strategy billboard tax in Bogor regency.The data used are secondary and primary data was analyzed by descriptive quantitative and qualitative. The analytical method used is a regression method, the calculation of Efficiency and Effectiveness taxes. As for the design of this research program using Analysis IFE, EFE and IE, SWOT Analysis and Analysis QSPM.Results of the discussion, in the realization of the tax revenue target advertisements Bogor regency government always exceed the achievement of the targets, with the exception of 2006, when the realization is not achieved then the effective rate also decreased and the percentage of tax efficiency at the Bogor Regency advertisement in 2000 - 2012 looks good and the smaller the ratio efficiency means that the performance of the Bogor regency government for the better collection of advertisement tax.Based on the partial test table, budget, number of employees, regulatory and tax payers have a significant impact on tax revenue billboard on the real level of 10%. Constraints faced in collecting data on the potential of the advertisement tax is the lack of accurate data due to the limited ability of local government officials, the need for legal certainty in the billboard tax management.The draft strategy are as follows 1) conduct outreach and education on an ongoing basis to increase public awareness, 2) build a system of valid and accurate data; 3) give reward and punishment.Keywords: Strategy, Regional Revenue, Advertising Tax ABSTRAK Wujud otonomi dan desentralisasi fiscal, pemerintah daerah berusaha melakukan penggalian dan pengembangan sumber pendapatan potensial untuk meningkatkan pendapatan asli daerah.Tujuan penelitian menganalisis faktor-faktor yang mempengaruhi penerimaan pajak reklame, mengkaji manajemen penyelengaraan pajak reklame, menganalisis persepsi masyarakat terhadap pajak reklame dan menyusun strategi peningkatan pendapatan pajak reklame di Kabupaten Bogor.Data yang digunakan data sekunder dan primer, dianalisis secara deskriftif kuantitatif, kualitatif. Metode analisis yang digunakan Regresi, Efisiensi dan Efektivitas pajak. Perancangan program menggunakan Analisis IFE, EFE dan IE, Analisis SWOT dan Analisis QSPM.Hasil pembahasan, dalam merealisasikan target pendapatan pajak reklame selalu melebihi target yang ditetapkan, dengan pengecualian tahun 2006, ketika realisasi tidak tercapai maka efektivitas mengalami penurunan dan persentase efisiensi pajak reklame di Kabupaten Bogor tahun 2000-2012 terlihat baik dan semakin kecil rasio efisiensi mengandung arti kinerja pemerintah Kabupaten Bogor untuk pemungutan pajak reklame semakin baik.Berdasarkan tabel uji parsial, anggaran, pegawai, peraturan dan wajib pajak memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap penerimaan pajak reklame pada taraf nyata 10%. Kendala yang dihadapi yaitu kurangnya data yang akurat, keterbatasan kemampuan aparat, masih kurang nya kesadaran masyarakat dan perlunya ada kepastian hukum. Rancangan strategi adalah 1) melakukan sosialisasi penyuluhan secara berkesinambungan 2) membangun sistem data yang valid dan akurat 3) memberikan reward dan punishment sesuai ketentuan.Kata Kunci : Strategi, Pendapatan Asli Daerah, Pajak Reklame
DISPARITAS REGIONAL PROVINSI SUMATERA BARAT DI ERA OTONOMI DAERAH Syahrial, S; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Purnamadewi, Yeti Lis
Jurnal Tataloka Vol 17, No 1 (2015): Volume 17 Number 1, February 2015
Publisher : Universitas Diponegoro

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.14710/tataloka.17.1.53-63

Abstract

Regional autonomy policy has been implemented since 2001, but in 2013 as many as 66.67 percent of districts in West Sumatra still categorized as a relatively underdeveloped region by the Ministry of Development Underdeveloped regions. This indicates the occurrence of inequality considerable development in the Province of West Sumatra. This study not only examines the degree of inequality between regions, but also analyze the impact of GDRP per capita, the growth of the Human Development Index, and the Ratio of Infrastructure Expenditure against the inequalities based on economic position (the pattern and structure of economic growth). Analysis of the data use the Index Williamson and panel data regession from 2005 to 2012. The results showed disparity of regional development in the Provinces of West Sumatra increasing. Simultaneously and partially three independent variables (GDRP per capita, the growth of the Human Development Index, the Ratio of Infrastructure Expenditure) significant and positive influence as a major source of regional disparities in the Province of West Sumatra.Regional autonomy policy has been implemented since 2001, but in 2013 as many as 66.67 percent of districts in West Sumatra still categorized as a relatively underdeveloped region by the Ministry of Development Underdeveloped regions. This indicates the occurrence of inequality considerable development in the Province of West Sumatra. This study not only examines the degree of inequality between regions, but also analyze the impact of GDRP per capita, the growth of the Human Development Index, and the Ratio of Infrastructure Expenditure against the inequalities based on economic position (the pattern and structure of economic growth). Analysis of the data use the Index Williamson and panel data regession from 2005 to 2012. The results showed disparity of regional development in the Provinces of West Sumatra increasing. Simultaneously and partially three independent variables (GDRP per capita, the growth of the Human Development Index, the Ratio of Infrastructure Expenditure) significant and positive influence as a major source of regional disparities in the Province of West Sumatra.
INTEGRASI PASAR KARET ALAM SIT ASAP ANTARA PRODUSEN UTAMA DENGAN PASAR BERJANGKA DUNIA Nurhidayati, Indah; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Asmara, Alla
Jurnal Manajemen & Agribisnis Vol 12, No 3 (2015): Vol. 12 No. 3, November 2015
Publisher : School of Business, Bogor Agricultural University (SB-IPB)

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Abstract

The purpose of this recearch is to detemine the integration between the main producers of ribbed smoked sheet/RSS and world commodity exchange. This research used vector autoregressionmodel (VAR) with no consideration of cointegration based on the daily price data from January 2013 to December 2014. The results showed that not all market’s RSS integrated. But in the short term proved that the Singapore Commodity Exchange and Tokyo Commodity Exchange affect the market price formation in Indonesia and Thailand. Overall the response of each market is relatively small to price in the Singapore and Japan stock thus less strongly affect the prices established in each market. The results also show the price at the commodity exchange of Singapore and Japan became the source of the greatest affect in explaining the variability of prices in both stock markets.Keywords: RSS, market integration, VAR, market price, ribbedABSTRAKPenelitian ini bertujuan mengetahui integrasi antara pasar karet alam sit asap (ribbed smoked sheet/RSS) produsen utama dengan pasar berjangka dunia. Pendekatan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah vector autoregression model (VAR) dengan pertimbangan tidak adanya kointegrasi yang terjadi berdasarkan data harga harian periode Januari 2013 sampai Desember 2014. Hasil penelitian menunjukan bahwa tidak semua pasar RSS terintegrasi. Namun dalam jangka pendek terbukti bahwa pasar berjangka Singapura dan Jepang memengaruhi pembentukan harga di pasar Indonesia dan Thailand. Secara keseluruhan respon masing-masing pasar relatif kecil terhadap guncangan harga di bursa Singapura dan Jepang sehingga kurang kuat memengaruhi harga yang terbentuk di masing-masing pasar. Hasil penelitian juga menunjukkan harga di bursa Singapura dan Jepang menjadi sumber guncangan terbesar dalam menjelaskan variabilitas harga di kedua bursa tersebut. Kata kunci: RSS, integrasi pasar, VAR, harga di pasar, karet
ANALISIS FLUKTUASI DOLLAR AMERIKA SERIKAT TERHADAP RUPIAH DI SAAT DAN SETELAH KRISIS SUBPRIME MORTGAGE 2007 - 2013 Mahardika, Gustiyan Taufik; Siregar, Hermanto; Hakim, Dedi Budiman
Signifikan: Jurnal Ilmu Ekonomi Vol 3, No. 2, Oktober 2014
Publisher : Faculty of Economic and Business Syarif Hidayatullah State Islamic University of Jakarta

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (71.575 KB) | DOI: 10.15408/sigf.v3i2.2060

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In a floating system, exchange rates fluctuate due to macroeconomic conditions that occur. Due to the uncertainty caused by economic shocks or financial crises such as subprime mortgage crisis, fluctuation analysis can be used to minimize the risks that arise in business that involve exchange rates such as export/import or hedge funds. This study aims to analyze the fluctuations in the exchange rate during and after the subprime mortgage crisis 2007 – 2013 in order to give a better understanding on the dynamics of the exchange rate. By analyzing the dynamics, individuals or companies that make the currency as a component in its business can then decide the right policy to implement. Analyses were performed using an error correction model (ECM) for nominal (NER) and real exchange rate (RER). The variables that are proven significant for NER are money supply (JUB), current account (CAB), economic growth (EGROW), and the nominal central bank rate (NBIRATE). The dummy crisis variable did not have a significant effect on the NER, while the CAB affect NER in the short run only, and EGROW affect NER in the long run only.DOI: 10.15408/sjie.v3i2.2060
DAMPAK IMPLEMENTASI MANDAT KONSUMSI BAHAN BAKAR NABATI TERHADAP PEREKONOMIAN INDONESIA Sugiyono, Sugiyono; Oktaviani, Rina; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Arifin, Bustanul
JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN Vol 1, No 1 (2012): Jurnal Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pembangunan
Publisher : JURNAL EKONOMI DAN KEBIJAKAN PEMBANGUNAN

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Abstract

Before 2006, biofuel mandate consumption was expected to contribute to increase economic growth and job creation, decrease poverty, mitigate climate change, and improve energy security. The objective of the study is an analysis of implementation of biofuel mandate in Indonesian economy. This research applied the long run of Recursive Dynamic General Equilibrium (RDGE) model by Indonesian Forecasting. Three simulations are used to increase of biofuel demand, seconds to increase of biofuel agriculture land expansion, deforestation, and rise fixed capital, and to last change agricultural and biofuel productivity. The policy of biofuel mandate implementation is effectively to increase economic growth, rise household income, and improve carbon emission, but less effective to built food security and feed, decline employment by industri for non biofuel agriculture, and descend forest and other forest outputs in Indonesia. The policy implication is to increase output for non biofuel agriculture by rising productivity and policy of import and inflation targetting to take sides for welfare farmer’s and food employee’s. Keywords: Biofuel, RDGE, food security, carbon emission
DETERMINANT OF CAPITAL RATIO: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON STATE-OWNED BANKS IN INDONESIA Raharjo, Pamuji Gesang; Hakim, Dedi Budiman; Manurung, Adler Haymans; Maulana, Tubagus Nur Ahmad
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 4 (2014): APRIL 2014
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (201.999 KB) | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v16i4.451

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Capital plays important role to support the operational of the banks and to create a sound banking system in aggregate. For this reason, the banks are required to have a sufficient amount of capital, both to support its business expansion as well as a buffer to prevent and to absorb any unexpected losses. This paper analyzes determinants of capital ratio of the state-owned banks in Indonesia. Using panel data regression model, the result shows that the capital ratio of these state-owned banks is affected by the size of the bank, the bank’s leverage, the quality of management, and the interest rate risk. Contrary to the existing literatures, this paper does not support the effect of management capability to generate income on the bank’s capital ratio. Keywords: Capital structure, state-owned banks, panel estimation.JEL Classification: C23, G21, G32