Articles

Found 7 Documents
Search

RISK ANALYSIS OF INVESTMENT A NEW FACTORY WITH MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Bisnis Vol 14, No 1 (2009)
Publisher : Universitas Gunadarma

Show Abstract | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (82.48 KB)

Abstract

A case study of an investment in developing a new factory was conductedone of critical factors which are concern in foreign investment evaluation,exchange rate of US$ to IDR (Rupiah). The exchange rate’s fluctuationeffect on the financial engineering project and also the firm performance,investment was funded by export debt. The exchange rate risk wasCarlo simulation model.Key Words: Risk, Monte Carlo Simulation, Financial Indicators.

ANALISIS RISIKO INVESTASI PABRIK BARU DENGAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO

Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Bisnis Vol 14, No 1 (2009)
Publisher : Universitas Gunadarma

Show Abstract | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (268.41 KB)

Abstract

Studi kasus investasi pendirian pabrik baru dilakukan dalam penelitian ini untukmenganalisis salah faktor kritis investasi, yaitu nilai tukar doalr Amerika terhadaprupiah. Fluktuasi nilai tukar uang mempunyai pengaruh potensial pada keuanganproyek rekayasa dan juga pada kinerja usaha, dimana investasi didanai dari utangluar negeri. Risiko nilai tukar dianalisis menggunakan model simualsi Monte Carlo.

PENGEMBANGAN INDUSTRI CRUDE PALM OIL BERKELANJUTAN DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN MODEL GEO-SPATIAL MULTICRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS

Bumi Lestari Journal of Environment Vol 13, No 1
Publisher : Udayana University

Show Abstract | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

AbstractDevelopment of crude palm oil industry in Indonesia and Malaysia have been able tochange the map of world vegetable oil in a short time. In 1985, Indonesia palm oil productionreached 1.3 million tons. However, in 2007 Indonesia has surpassed the total production ofCPO Malaysia. Indonesia’s CPO total production in 2011is 23 million tons. To producethat amount of production volume, there are at least 4 million ha of land to produce rawmaterial for the factory. With the next target of 50 million tons of production will of coursebe a lot of land to be prepared or converted. However, the increasing of CPO production isnot always have a positive impact. Forest damage caused by the opening of oil palmplantation and is still a lack of consideration to increase CPO production through increasedproductivity of the land received many responses from various parties environmentalists.Approximately 400,000 ha of forests in Indonesia per year be converted into oil palmplantations. The use of forest land for oil palm plantations is one of the growing threat ofIndonesia’s CPO production so necessary to control the development of this industry.Thispaper provides an alternative optimal solution to the development of palm oil industry bybuilding a decision support system that integrates GIS with spatial analysis modelsesspecially multicriteria decision making. This spatial based decision support system has acapability to accommodate the limitations of land development, environmental constraints,transportation facilities and transportation networks as well to get the optimal CPO industrydevelopment decision.

ANALISIS RISIKO NILAI TUKAR DAN STRUKTUR MODAL MENGGUNAKAN SIMULASI MONTE CARLO

Majalah Ilmiah Ekonomi Komputer 2006: Majalah Ilmiah Ekonomi Komputer Edisi Desember
Publisher : Majalah Ilmiah Ekonomi Komputer

Show Abstract | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (1537.33 KB)

Abstract

Fluktuasi nilai tukar, potensial memengaruhi kinerja finansial proyek yang menggunakan sumber pendanaan darihutang dalam bentuk valuta asing. Dalam konteks ini, persoalan yang perlu dipecahkan adalah bagaimanamenentukan atau memilih skala yang tepat dari hubungan antara tingkat keuntungan dan risiko yang menyertainya.Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis risiko nilai tukar dengan berbagai skenario struktur modal menggunakanmodel simulasi Monte Carlo yang dapat mengakomodasi situasi ketidakpastian melalui sejumlah iterasi denganbantuan komputer. Simulasi dilakukan pada kasus penambahan kapasitas pabrik semen di PT. Semen X. Denganberbagai skenario struktur permodalan proyek yang mempertimbangkan ketidakpastian nilai tukar didapatkan hasilbahwa kemungkinan proyek "layak" adalah sangat besar.Kata Kunci: Risiko Nilai Tukar, Struktur Modal, Simulasi Monte Carlo.

MODELANALISIS GEO-SPASIAL PENENTUAN JALUR TRANSPORTASI INDUSTRI CRUDE PALM OILMENGGUNAKAN ALGORITMA DJIKSTRA

Industrial and Systems Engineering Assessment Journal (INASEA) Vol 13, No 1 (2012): INASEA Vol. 13 No. 1
Publisher : Industrial and Systems Engineering Assessment Journal (INASEA)

Show Abstract | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Product transportationforcrude palm oil is a complex problem. The complexity is caused by the spread of the location of the oil palm plantationsand mills, the current and potential transportation network, the capacity constraint of each oil factory, the perishable characteristics of the product, the limited of port and port capacity which also depends on their geographical location and the supply fluctuation from plantationsto the factories due to their age.This paper will give an alternative solution which has not yet discussed in the earlier publications by providing a decision alternative related to product transportation from oil mills to ports using GIS based network analyst. The solution is a decision support system that integrate GIS and shortest path model. Spatial decision support system which has built have the capability to accomodate transportation network condition to find the best path from oil mills to the portswhich can be used for further decision making.This research shows that the short distance is not always as the fastest path and the lowest cost due to the condition of the network. The selection of development strategy in CPO agroindustry and the improvement of transportation infrastructures will be able to improve the performance of CPO industry significantly.

ANALISIS PREFERENSI MANAJEMEN TERHADAP STRATEGI PENGUKURAN KINERJA DENGAN MENGINTEGRASIKAN BALANCED SCORECARD DAN GAME THEORY (STUDI KASUS : PT. JAWA POS MEDIA TELEVISI)

Journal of Industrial Engineering Management Vol 2, No 2 (2017): Edisi Desember 2017
Publisher : Fakultas Teknologi Industri Universitas Muslim Indonesia

Show Abstract | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (438.428 KB)

Abstract

Dalam beberapa dekade terakhir, dunia industri menghadapi tantangan yang berat untuk berhasil dalam mengatasi pasar global yang kompetitif. Untuk memasuki lingkungan bisnis yang kompetitif, perbaikan manajemen perusahaan merupakan faktor penting yang harus diperhatikan oleh perusahaan. Oleh karena itu pengukuran kinerja adalah sebuah alat yang dapat dipakai untuk mengukur perubahan performance perusahaan. Balanced Scorecard (BSC) merupakan alat evaluasi kinerja yang luas dan menyeluruh untuk merencanakan secara memadai dan mengendalikan organisasi sehingga dapat mencapai tujuannya. Hasil pengukuran kinerja dari masing- masing strategi setiap decision maker yang dianalisis dalam matrik payoff game theory, ditemukan nilai Van Neumann Equilibirium dan Nash Equilibirium untuk masing-masing decision maker dengan nilai skor relatif pengukuran kinerja (80,67%) setelah hasil integrasi. Hal tersebut merupakan win-win solution untuk menemukan strategi secara sistematis dalam pengukuran kinerja yang melibatkan lebih dari satu decision maker.

Valuating Indonesian Upstream Oil Management Scenario through System Dynamics Modelling

Jurnal Teknik ITS Vol 6, No 2 (2017)
Publisher : Lembaga Penelitian dan Pengabdian Kepada Masyarakat (LPPM), ITS

Show Abstract | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.