Rizma Aldillah
Pusat Analisis Sosial Ekonomi dan KebijakanPertanian, Kementrian Pertanian Republik Indonesia

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PROYEKSI PRODUKSI DAN KONSUMSI KEDELAI INDONESIA Aldillah, Rizma
Jurnal Ekonomi Kuantitatif Terapan 2015: Vol. 8, No. 1, Februari 2015 (pp. 1-112)
Publisher : Universitas Udayana

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.24843/JEKT.2015.v08.i01.p02

Abstract

Due to the higher growth in consumption of soybean is higher than that of it?s production, the domestic consumption has to be fullfilled from imports. FAO data show that, the rate of import of soybean on average is 200 percent in the last 52 years, which show that until now self-sufficiency in soybean has not been achieved. To see whether Indonesia can reach self-sufficient in soybeans in the future, some forecast studies analized. Purpose of this study are: (1) growth analysis of soybean production and consumption, (2) response analysis of soybean area harvested and yield. The results ofthe analysisconcludedis that theproductionin 2020increase by 6.80% per annum, andconsumptionis increase by 2.10% per annum, butis predicted to the balancestillshowsa deficit, the deficitshoweda decreaseby 0.98% per annum.  The results of analysis show indication that it would be growth of soybean area in the future, which showed by the average production growth of approximately 3 times more than the average consumption growth.The implications and findings from this researchthat Indonesia has the opportunity to purpose its soybeans self-sufficient in the future.
ANALISIS SIMULASI KEBIJAKAN UNTUK MENINGKATKAN PRODUKSI KEDELAI NASIONAL Aldillah, Rizma; Harianto, Harianto; Daryanto, Heny Kuswanti Suwarsinah
Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia Vol 2, No 1 (2014): JAI Vol 2 No 1 Juni 2014
Publisher : Jurnal Agribisnis Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar

Abstract

Soybean is the main strategic food commodities after paddy and maize, as stated in the UU No. 7 Tahun 1996. Since 2009 until now, national soybean consumption has reach about 2 illion tones per year, but national soybean production just able to satisfy around 900 thousand tones per year, so it drawbacks met from imported soybeans. Contribution quantity of soybean imports reached more 70 persen of the domestic soybean demand per year, this is opposite to the Government aim has launched several years ago to become self-sufficient in soybeans at 2014. So that, we need a policy government to support soybeans self-sufficiency program. Soybeans self-sufficient will be achieved when the national soybeans production can meet the domestic soybeans demand, so that, the policy needs to be done is how to increase the quantity of the national soybeans production. In this study, a simulation analysis was conducted to provide the some alternative policy to improve soybeans production. The results of the analysis concluded that the national soybeans production will increase, at least 15 percent per year by increasing 25 percent the quantity of soybean seeds, 15 percent area harvested, 20 percent of imported soybean prices, 25 percent of national soybeans price, 30 percent soybean import tariffs, and the last is decreasing 150 percent of the quantity soybean imports. Simulation is determined based on the average growth rate of the historical data used.
Agribisnis Tembakau di Indonesia : Kontroversi dan Prospek Rachmat, Muchjidin; Aldillah, Rizma
Forum penelitian Agro Ekonomi Vol 28, No 1 (2010): Forum Penelitian Agro Ekonomi
Publisher : Pusat Sosial Ekonomi dan Kebijakan Pertanian

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21082/fae.v28n1.2010.69-80

Abstract

EnglishTobacco is one of the important commodities in Indonesia. The tobacco industry contributes significantly to the Indonesian economy, especially tax and excise as a source of government income, employment opportunity, source of income and regional development. However, tobacco and cigarettes has a negative impact on health and the environment. Indonesian cigarette industry is in a dilemma situation. Increasing public awareness about health and anti-smoking cigarettes causes a decrease of tobacco demand in the world and Indonesia, and its negative impact in the demand for tobacco leaf. This condition must be anticipated at the early stage with directive program in the development of tobacco crop substitution. This substitution can be carried out through the development of high value alternative crops with the application of technology and market assurances. Among these high value commodities are horticultural crops, like vegetables and ornamental plants.  To ensure market and the application of technology for such crops, it is necessary to develop a partnership relation with the market actors.   With a large number of smokers and a hereditary culture, Indonesia is considered as a potential market for the tobacco industry. This condition should allow a greater negative impact and social costs for Indonesia. To encounter such situation, Indonesia need a cigarette consumption reduction policy which could be applied through: (a) high cigarette tax and price, (b)  strictly abandon promotion, advertisement and cigarette sponsorship in various events that involve young people, and (c) well-guarded stipulation on free smoking area.IndonesianTembakau merupakan salah satu komoditas penting di Indonesia. Industri tembakau memberikan kontribusi yang signifikan bagi perekonomian Indonesia, terutama cukai dan  devisa sebagai sumber penerimaan negara, lapangan kerja, sumber pendapatan dan pembangunan daerah. Namun, tembakau dan rokok memiliki dampak negatif terhadap kesehatan dan lingkungan. Industri rokok Indonesia berada dalam situasi dilema. Peningkatan kepedulian masyarakat tentang kesehatan dan gerakan anti-merokok menyebabkan penurunan permintaan dunia dan Indonesia pada rokok, dan berdampak kepada penurunan permintaan daun tembakau. Kondisi ini harus diantisipasi secara dini dan terprogram dalam bentuk pengembangan tanaman substitusi tembakau.  Upaya substitusi ini dapat dilakukan melalui pengembangan tanaman alternatif bernilai ekonomi tinggi dengan penerapan teknologi dan jaminan pasar. Beberapa komoditas bernilai tinggi tersebut terutama tanaman hortikultura, seperti sayuran dan tanaman hias. Untuk memberikan kepastian  pasar  dan penerapan  teknologi perlu dikembangkan pola kemitraan dengan  pelaku pasar. Dengan jumlah penduduk yang besar dan memiliki budaya merokok yang turun temurun, Indonesia dinilai merupakan pasar yang potensial bagi industri rokok.  Kondisi ini akan berakibat Indonesia  akan menerima lebih besar dampak negatif dan biaya sosial.  Untuk itu diperlukan kebijakan pengurangan konsumsi rokok melalui: (a) peningkatan  cukai dan harga rokok, (b) pengendalian/pelarangan iklan dan sponsor rokok dalam kegiatan yang melibatkan remaja, dan (c) penetapan kawasan bebas rokok.