Lya Aklimawati
Pusat Penelitian Kopi dan Kakao Indonesia
Articles
3
Documents
Characteristics of Quality Profile and Agribusiness of Robusta Coffee in Tambora Mountainside, Sumbawa

Pelita Perkebunan (Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal) Vol 30, No 2 (2014)
Publisher : Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute

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Abstract

Coffee development in Indomesia by means of optimalizing local resources needs to be done for increasing national coffee production as well as for expanding domestic and international markets. These opportunities must be used to gain benefit as a strategic action for raising farmer’s prosperity. This study was aimed to observe physical quality and flavor profile of Robusta coffee from Tambora mountainside, and to identify agribusiness coffee system applied by the farmers, including problem identification at farmer’s level. This research was carried out at Pekat Subdistrict (Dompu District) and Tambora Subdistrict (Bima District), West Nusa Tenggara Province. Direct observation and in-depth interviews were conducted in this study. Data collected consisted of primary and secondary data, as well as 11 green coffee samples from farmers to be analysed its physical quality and flavor profile. The number of respondents were nine stakeholders consisted of three farmers, two farmer group leaders, one field officer, one duty officer, one trader, and one large planter official. Respondents selection were based on convenience sampling method. The results showed that physical quality of coffee bean was belonged to Grade 4—6 (fair to poor quality), while broken beans shared the highest number of physical defects. Robusta coffee from Tambora mountainside performed good taste profile, that the coffee can be promoted to be fine Robusta by improving post harvest handling. Robusta coffee farming at Tambora mountainside was characterized by monoculture cropping system, average of land ownerships about 1 ha/household, and average productivity about 900—1,000 kg green coffee/ha/year. Major problems on Robusta coffee farming at Tambora mountainside consisted of lack of coffee plant maintenance as well as limited accessibility to financing and technology. Key words: agribusiness, physical quality, flavor, Robusta coffee, Tambora mountainside

Estimating the Volatility of Cocoa Price Return with ARCH and GARCH Models

Pelita Perkebunan (Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal) Vol 29, No 2 (2013)
Publisher : Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute

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Abstract

Dynamics of market changing as a result of market liberalization have an impact on agricultural commodities price fluctuation. High volatility on cocoa price movement reflect its price and market risk. Because of price and market uncertainty, the market players face some difficulties to make a decision in determining business development. This research was conducted to 1) understand the characteristics of cocoa price movement in cocoa futures trading, and 2)analyze cocoa price volatility using ARCH and GARCH type model. Research was carried out by direct observation on the pattern of cocoa price movement in the futures trading and volatility analysis based on secondary data. The data was derived from Intercontinental Exchange ( ICE) Futures U.S. Reports. The analysis result showed that GARCH is the best model to predict the value of average cocoa price return volatility, because it meets criteria of three diagnostic checking, which are ARCH-LM test, residual autocorrelation test and residual normality test. Based on the ARCH-LM test, GARCH (1,1)did not have heteroscedasticity, because p-value  2 (0.640139)and F-statistic (0.640449) were greater than 0.05. Results of residual autocorrelation test indicated that residual value of GARCH (1,1) was random, because the statistic value of Ljung-Box (LB)on the 36 th lag is smaller than the statistic value of  2. Whereas, residual normality test concluded the residual of GARCH (1,1) were normally distributed, because AR (29), MA (29), RESID (-1)^2, and GARCH (-1) were significant at 5% significance level. Increasing volatility value indicate high potential risk. Price risk can be reduced by managing financial instrument in futures trading such as forward and futures contract, and hedging. The research result also give an insight to the market player for decision making and determining time of hedging. Key words: Volatility, price, cocoa, GARCH, risk, futures trading

Effect of Price Determinants on World Cocoa Prices for Over the Last Three Decades: Error Correction Model (ECM) Approach

Pelita Perkebunan (Coffee and Cocoa Research Journal) Vol 29, No 3 (2013)
Publisher : Indonesian Coffee and Cocoa Research Institute

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Abstract

High  volatility  cocoa  price  movement  is  consequenced  by  imbalancing between power demand and power supply in commodity market. World economy expectation and market  liberalization would lead to instability on cocoa prices in  the  international  commerce.  Dynamic  prices  moving  erratically  influence the benefit  of market players, particularly  producers. The aim of this research is  (1)  to  estimate  the  empirical  cocoa  prices  model  for  responding  market dynamics and (2) analyze short-term and long-term effect of price determinants variables  on cocoa prices.  This research  was  carried out by  analyzing  annualdata from 1980 to 2011, based on secondary data. Error correction mechanism (ECM)  approach was  used  to  estimate the  econometric  model  of  cocoa  price.The  estimation  results  indicated  that  cocoa  price  was  significantly  affected  by exchange rate IDR-USD, world gross domestic product,  world inflation, worldcocoa production, world cocoa consumption, world cocoa stock and Robusta prices at varied significance level from 1 - 10%. All of these variables have a long run equilibrium relationship. In long run effect, world gross domestic product, world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1),  while other  variables  were  inelastic  (E  <1).  Variables  that  affecting  cocoa  pricesin  short  run  equilibrium  were  exchange  rate  IDR-USD,  world  gross  domestic product,  world  inflation,  world  cocoa  consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock. The  analysis  results  showed  that  world  gross  domestic  product,  world  cocoa consumption  and  world  cocoa  stock  were  elastic  (E  >1)  to  cocoa  prices  in short-term.  Whereas,  the  response  of  cocoa  prices  was  inelastic  to  change  of exchange rate IDR-USD and world inflation.Key words: Price determinants, cocoa, Error Correction Model, demand, supply, stock