Bathaluddin, M. Barik
Bank Indonesia

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INFLATION TARGETING UNDER IMPERFECT CREDIBILITY BASED ON ARIMBI (Aggregate Rational Inflation - Targeting Model for Bank Indonesia); LESSONS FROM INDONESIAN EXPERIENCE Harmanta, Harmanta; Bathaluddin, M. Barik; Waluyo, Jati
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 3 (2011): JANUARY 2011
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v13i3.263

Abstract

This paper try to assess role of credibility in the implementation of inflation targeting framework in Indonesia. It illustrates how credibility may play an important role in the evolution of the Indonesian monetary policy. Knowing the degree of credibility would beneficial for Bank Indonesia (BI) to understand how to adjust policy instrument to achieve a long-term inflation target.Scaled from zero (purely not credible) to one (perfect credibility), our quantitative measurements found that credibility index for Indonesian monetary policy converge to around 0.5. Refer to projection and simulation results in this paper, the study shows expectation inflation of economic agents is strongly influenced by monetary policy credibility. The more credible the monetary policy, the faster inflation expectation would anchor to its target. In addition, high credibility also increase the efficiency of the monetary policy transmission since the disinflation cost represented by sacrifice ratio is lower. Under imperfect credibility the central bank prefer to attain its inflation target gradually, and if the credibility stock is doubled, then achieving its long-term inflation target required a lot shorter time (approximately 0.4 periods than the baseline).JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61Keywords: Disinflation, Monetary Policy, Imperfect Credibility, Sacrifice Ratio
DAMPAK PERSISTENSI EKSES LIKUIDITAS TERHADAP KEBIJAKAN MONETER Bathaluddin, M. Barik; Adhi P., Nur M.; Wibowo, Wahyu Ari
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 14 No 3 (2012): JANUARY 2012
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v14i3.359

Abstract

This paper analyzes the excess liquidity especially on banking industry and its impact on monetary policy on Indonesia. We firstly investigate the determinants of bank behavior on their favor for excess liquidity both for precautionary motive and involuntary, and furthermore determine the threshold between low and high excess liquidity regimes. On the next step, this paper evaluates the impact of excess liquidity on monetary policy on the two regimes. Thefirst result shows that the excess liquidity on bank with their precautionary motive is significantly determined by the volatility of money demand, volatility of economic growth, the bank cost of the bank, and also the lag of excess liquidity, which conform its persistence. Secondly, using the Threshold-VAR approach, this paper shows the switching regime occurs in 2005 from low to high excess liquidity. Lastly, the excess liquidity reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy on controlling inflation.Keywords: Excess liquidity, Threshold VAR, monetary policy transmission mechanism.JEL Classification: B23, E5
INFLATION TARGETING UNDER IMPERFECT CREDIBILITY: LESSONS FROM INDONESIAN EXPERIENCE Harmanta, Harmanta; Bathaluddin, M. Barik; Waluyo, Jati
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 3 (2011): JANUARY 2011
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v13i3.394

Abstract

This paper try to assess role of credibility in the implementation of inflation targeting framework in Indonesia. It illustrates how credibility may play an important role in the evolution of the Indonesian monetary policy. Knowing the degree of credibility would beneficial for Bank Indonesia (BI) to understand how to adjust policy instrument to achieve a long-term inflation target. Scaled from zero (purely not credible) to one (perfect credibility), our quantitative measurements found that credibility index for Indonesian monetary policy converge to around 0.5. Refer to projection and simulation results in this paper, the study shows expectation inflation of economic agents is strongly influenced by monetary policy credibility. The more credible the monetary policy, the faster inflation expectation would anchor to its target. In addition, high credibility also increase the efficiency of the monetary policy transmission since the disinflation cost represented by sacrifice ratio is lower. Under imperfect credibility the central bank prefer to attain its inflation target gradually, and if the credibility stock is doubled, then achieving its long-term inflation target required a lot shorter time (approximately 0.4 periods than the baseline). JEL Classification: E31, E52, E58, E61Keywords: Disinflation, Monetary Policy, Imperfect Credibility, Sacrifice Ratio
THE IMPACT OF EXCESS LIQUIDITY ON MONETARY POLICY Bathaluddin, M. Barik; Adhi P., Nur M.; Wibowo, Wahyu Ari
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 14 No 3 (2012): JANUARY 2012
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v14i3.404

Abstract

This paper analyzes the excess liquidity especially on banking industry and its impact on monetary policy in Indonesia. We firstly investigate the determinants of bank behavior on their favor for excess liquidity both for precautionary motive and involuntary. Furthermore we determine the threshold between the low and high excess liquidity regimes. On the next step, this paper evaluates and compares the impact of excess liquidity on monetary policy between the two regimes. The first result shows that the excess liquidity on bank with their precautionary motive is significantly determined by the volatility of money demand, the volatility of economic growth, the bank cost of the bank, and also by the lag of excess liquidity, which conform its persistence. Secondly, using the Threshold-VAR approach, this paper shows the switching regime occurs in 2005 from low to high excess liquidity. Lastly, the excess liquidity reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy on controlling inflationKeywords: Excess liquidity, Threshold VAR, monetary policy transmission mechanism.JEL Classification: B23, E5