Ari Wibowo, Wahyu
Bank Indonesia

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DAMPAK PELAKSANAAN ACFTA TERHADAP PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL INDONESIA Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Permata, Meily Ika; Ari Wibowo, Wahyu
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 13 No 1 (2010): JULY 2010
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | Full PDF (284.305 KB) | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v13i1.254

Abstract

This study analyze the impact of the implementation of trade agreements within the framework of ACFTA on Indonesia┬╗s export by using the GTAP model; a Multi Regional Computable General Equilibrium Model. Results shows that ACFTA provide opportunities for increased export from Indonesia; Indonesia obtained a net trade creation of international trade amounted to 2% and total exports growth increased by 1.8. However, the export performance of Indonesia in the period showed a decrease of competitiveness, as shown by the decline in share of Indonesian export commodities which are highly competitive and high intra-industry linkage. This paper also find that because the commodity structure of China and the non compeeting behavior of ASEAN countries including Indonesia (tends to complement), China is relatively easier to penetrate export to the ASEAN market. The entering products from China should provide opportunities for domestic producers to increase production capacity in ASEAN, due to wider choice of relatively cheap capital goods imports.JEL Classification: C67, F14, R12Keywords: ACFTA, trade, export, GTAP, Revealed Comparative Advantage, CGE.