Grace, Melva Viva
Bank Indonesia

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TRANSMISI DAMPAK MELALUI JARINGAN PERDAGANGAN: PENDEKATAN ASIAN-IO Ibrahim, Ibrahim; Winarno, Tri; Grace, Melva Viva; Fitri, Yan
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 16 No 4 (2014): APRIL 2014
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v16i4.23

Abstract

Global financial crisis which began in the US in the latter part of 2008 hit a lot of countries in both trade and finance. In trade aspect, the crisis spread widely; in Indonesia, the total export value in 2009 dropped to 14,3%. Therefore, the economy of China, tightly linked with Asian countries including Indonesia, which rapidly rose before the crisis but slowed after it should be monitored as this condition, could indirectly hold down Indonesia’s GDP. Applying RAS method to update Asian IO data, this research has attempted to describe the trade structure of Asian countries in 2010. Also, it implemented a simulation of the impact of US and China’s GDP decline and US exports on Indonesia’s GDP, both at aggregate and sector levels. The result of the mapping shows that Indonesia is getting more dependent on China. Generally, the link between Indonesia’s exported products and global production chain is weak. Indonesia’s export commodities which are mostly of intermediate goods have low contribution towards value added. Moreover, the result of the simulation shows that 1% decrease in China’s GDP has greater impact on Indonesia’s GDP (0,14%) than that of the US (0,05%) and EU (0,07%) though with similar point.  Keyword: Trade Interactions, Input Output Model JEL Classification : F16, R15
THE ROLE OF CURRENCY HEDGING ON FIRM PERFORMANCE: A PANEL DATA EVIDENCE IN INDONESIA Indawan, Fiskara; Fitriani, Sri; Karlina, Indriani; Grace, Melva Viva
Buletin Ekonomi Moneter dan Perbankan Vol 17 No 3 (2015): JANUARY 2015
Publisher : Bank Indonesia

Show Abstract | Download Original | Original Source | Check in Google Scholar | DOI: 10.21098/bemp.v17i3.39

Abstract

This paper analyzes the role of currency hedging on non-financial firm’s performance. Most firms on the sample have anticipated the currency mismatch risk by balancing the ratio of foreign debt to their asset  fenominated in foreign currency. Using panel estimation, we find that there is no evidence of currency hedging activities to affect capital and performance of firms. The result underlines the low intensity of currency hedging activities due to lack of incentives, which is inline with the low derivative transaction within the underdeveloped foreign currency market. This finding may raise a concern since currently the development of foreign liabilities for non-financial firmsin Indonesia is increasing in significant level, as well as the increase risk of domestic currency depreciation. For these reasons, Bank Indonesia should take proactive policies to deepen foreign currency market as well as derivative market by providing a more comprehensive and market friendly hedging instruments to banks and non-financial firms, while keep promoting the benefit of currency hedging.Keywords: Hedging, derivative market, foreign liability.JEL Classification: F31, G31